As high-stakes negotiations between the United States and Iran approach in Islamabad, the future of a fragile regional ceasefire and global energy security hangs in the balance, with deep divisions and ongoing military violence casting a long shadow over the scheduled discussions. Set to kick off on Saturday in Pakistan’s capital, the talks could stretch up to 15 days, with negotiators set to address a slate of explosive, high-stakes issues ranging from Iran’s nuclear enrichment program to unimpeded commercial navigation through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has already tied its full participation in the dialogue to an immediate end to Israeli military strikes in Lebanon, a demand that comes as Israel continues its offensive against Hezbollah in the region.
The US delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance, but Iran has yet to release details of its negotiating team, with top Iranian officials arguing that ongoing Israeli attacks have already stripped the planned talks of meaningful purpose. “The holding of talks to end the war is dependent on the US adhering to its ceasefire commitments on all fronts, especially in Lebanon,” Esmaeil Baqaei, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, confirmed Thursday.
Tensions rose further Thursday after US President Donald Trump cast public doubt on Iranian compliance with existing shipping agreements through the Strait of Hormuz, writing on social media that “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!” The vocal criticism came amid shifting shipping activity in the region: early Friday, ship-tracking data showed a Botswana-flagged liquefied natural gas tanker reversed course and returned to the Gulf after attempting to exit via a route approved by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, highlighting growing uncertainty over the strait’s operation.
In a Thursday speech marking 40 days since the death of former supreme leader Ali Khamenei—who was killed in a joint US-Israeli strike at the outbreak of the current conflict—Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that the Iranian people had secured a “decisive victory” in the war, and announced that the country would move into a new phase of managing the strategic waterway. De facto disruption to traffic through the strait, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supplies pass, has already sent global energy prices soaring: by Friday, the international benchmark Brent crude spot price stood at around $96 per barrel, a 35% jump since the start of the conflict. The price surge has driven up costs for gasoline, food and other essential goods across the globe, far beyond the borders of the Middle East.
As Pakistan tightened security across Islamabad in preparation for the talks, global economic leaders have warned that the ongoing conflict already poses a major threat to worldwide growth, regardless of whether the fragile ceasefire holds. Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, told reporters Thursday that “had it not been for this shock, we would have been upgrading global growth.” Speaking ahead of next week’s joint IMF-World Bank spring meetings, Georgieva added: “But now, even our most hopeful scenario involves a growth downgrade.”
Israeli military activity has continued to escalate in Lebanon, shattering the already uneasy truce between Washington and Tehran. On Wednesday, Israel carried out its deadliest round of strikes on Lebanon since February 28, killing more than 300 people. Early Friday, the Israeli military announced it had targeted an additional 10 rocket launchers across southern Lebanon. Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, who is widely rumored to be a leading candidate to join Iran’s negotiating team in talks with Vance, warned Thursday that continued Israeli attacks on Hezbollah would bring “explicit costs and strong responses.”
Further complicating regional tensions, Kuwait announced Friday it had suffered a drone attack overnight Thursday, which it blamed on Iran. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard quickly issued a denial, rejecting any involvement in the strike.
Parallel to the US-Iran talks in Pakistan, direct Israeli-Lebanese negotiations are scheduled to launch next week in Washington. But many analysts warn the prospects for progress are slim. Abed Abou Shhadeh, a Jaffa-based Israeli political analyst and activist, described the US-Iran ceasefire talks as “extremely problematic” for Israel. Citing recent Israeli media polls, Al Jazeera reported that 79 percent of Israeli citizens support continuing military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, meaning the Israeli government has little political incentive to pursue diplomatic progress.