A recent study by Germany’s IW economic institute reveals a significant shift in the United States’ import dependency, with the European Union now surpassing China in both the total value and variety of goods imported. Over the past 15 years, the U.S. reliance on EU imports has grown substantially, with the number of product categories where at least 50% of imports originate from the EU increasing from over 2,600 in 2010 to more than 3,100 in 2023. The total import value of these goods, including chemical products, electrical machinery, and equipment, reached $287 billion last year, nearly 2.5 times higher than in 2010. In contrast, China accounted for 2,925 product categories with a total value of $247 billion in the same period. The study suggests that this growing dependence could provide the EU with strategic leverage in future tariff negotiations. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen may have had a stronger position in recent talks, which resulted in a baseline tariff rate of 15% on most EU goods. The report also highlights that many EU products are difficult to replace in the short term, a factor that could be pivotal if trade tensions escalate. As a last resort, the EU could consider export restrictions on goods critical to the U.S. economy. Co-author Samina Sultan emphasized that while trade data alone cannot fully capture the importance of these goods, the study underscores the potential risks for the U.S. if it continues to raise tariffs, effectively ‘shooting itself in the foot.’