In a testament to economic resilience, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has sustained stable inflation levels despite global economic volatility. According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Regional Economic Outlook, the UAE’s inflation is projected to average 1.6% in 2025, slightly lower than the 1.7% recorded in 2024, with a modest rise to 2.0% anticipated in 2026. This trajectory remains well within the central bank’s target, underscoring the nation’s effective fiscal management and price stability. Dubai’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.9% year-on-year in September 2025, up from 2.4% in August, driven primarily by significant increases in the Housing, Water, Electricity, and Gas category, which surged by 5.8%. Other contributing factors included rebounds in Recreation and Culture, alongside modest rises in Education and Food & Beverages. However, declining Transport costs helped temper overall inflation. The broader Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region has mirrored this stability, with inflation expected to remain below or at the 2% target through 2026. Saudi Arabia, the GCC’s largest economy, recorded a 2.2% year-on-year inflation rate in September 2025, with notable increases in Personal Goods & Services and Housing. The Kingdom’s central bank aligned with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cut, reducing its repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points. Other GCC nations, including Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar, reported mild inflation figures, supported by increased oil production and stabilized energy prices. Globally, inflation dynamics remain complex, with the U.S. experiencing a 3% year-on-year rise in September, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Meanwhile, declining global food prices, as indicated by the FAO Food Price Index, have provided some relief to import-dependent economies. However, geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions continue to pose risks. The GCC’s inflation outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with regional stability offering a buffer against global economic challenges.
