In a chaotic sequence of diplomatic and military developments roiling US-Iran relations, former President Donald Trump first issued a stark, escalatory threat to seize Iran’s critical Kharg Island oil export terminal this Thursday, only to rapidly walk back the pledge just hours later, acknowledging deep public and strategic uncertainty over the high human cost of such an invasion. The reversal comes amid a broader wave of escalating US military strikes against Iranian targets that have already sparked international outrage and regional pushback for de-escalation.
Trump first made the aggressive announcement via his Truth Social platform on Thursday morning, warning that “The United States will be hitting Iran… VERY HARD TONIGHT.” He went on to claim that in the near future, US forces would take control of Kharg Island alongside other major Iranian oil infrastructure assets, asserting Washington would seize full command of Iran’s oil and gas markets in a move he compared to the US’s previous intervention in Venezuela.
This is not the first time such a drastic plan has been floated: during the opening weeks of the US’s ongoing war against Iran, the Trump administration originally weighed an operation to capture Kharg Island before ultimately abandoning the proposal. Military analysts and former senior defense officials have long warned that any invasion of the strategic island would come with severe risks. When the plan was first considered, former senior US and Western military officials told Middle East Eye that while US forces could likely establish an initial beachhead on Kharg Island, invading troops would face intense defensive fire from Iranian forces while approaching, and would encounter sustained, significant challenges in maintaining control of the territory long-term.
Shortly after his social media post, Trump softened his stance during an interview with Fox News, openly acknowledging the heavy casualty projection that comes with any invasion attempt. “My preference has always been – take Kharg Island…my preference would be that. I don’t know that America has the stomach for it,” he told the outlet.
Military experts echo the assessment that a successful occupation of Kharg Island would face enormous structural hurdles, starting with regional access. Kalev Sepp, a retired US special forces officer and emeritus professor at the US Naval Postgraduate School, explained to Middle East Eye that any US invasion force would rely heavily on base access from neighboring Gulf Cooperation Council states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait. “They can’t do this without neighbouring Gulf states giving them access to bases,” Sepp noted.
Yet Gulf states that once backed US military activity at the start of the war have shifted dramatically in recent months, now prioritizing negotiated diplomacy to de-escalate regional tensions. Even the UAE, long the most hawkish Gulf state toward Iran, held direct face-to-face talks with senior Iranian officials this week aimed at reducing tensions, Bloomberg confirmed Thursday. A Gulf diplomat told Middle East Eye open-source flight tracking on X indicates the high-level meeting was held in Tehran, after an Emirati government plane linked to senior officials was spotted landing in the Iranian capital.
Beyond securing regional basing access, experts say the single biggest strategic challenge for the US would be holding Kharg Island after an initial amphibious or airborne landing. “These forces are very good at securing a foothold because they are extremely light and can move quickly. The moment they become static, they become a target that needs to be protected and supplied,” Daniel Davis, a former US Army lieutenant colonel, told Middle East Eye. “It would be a shooting gallery.”
Trump’s inconsistent rhetoric also underscores a persistent gap between his public claims about Iran’s military capabilities and on-the-ground realities. The former president has repeatedly asserted that Iran’s “Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE,” framing a potential battle for Kharg Island as an easy victory. The latest reversal also follows a similar backtrack on another escalatory threat: Trump recently walked back a proposal to attack Iran’s civilian infrastructure, a move widely classified as a war crime under international law. “I’d rather not do it, because once you do that, the people suffer,” he said after publicly threatening to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges.
Despite the rhetorical flip-flop on the Kharg Island invasion, the US has continued to escalate direct strikes against Iranian targets in violation of an April ceasefire agreement reached with Tehran. On Thursday, the US targeted a civilian drinking water facility on Iran’s southern coast, Iranian officials confirmed, leaving an estimated 20,000 local residents without access to clean running water, The New York Times reported. International law uniformly categorizes deliberate attacks on critical civilian infrastructure such as water facilities as war crimes.
In a separate strike Thursday, US forces attacked a commercial tanker transiting the Gulf of Oman, killing three Indian crew members on board. US officials justified the strike by claiming the vessel violated Washington’s blockade of the waterway. Following the attack, Oman launched a search and rescue operation for surviving crew, while the Indian government summoned the US deputy chief of mission in New Delhi to issue a formal protest over the deadly incident.
The escalating strikes come as Trump grows increasingly publicly frustrated that Iran has refused to accept US terms for ending the ongoing conflict. “The whole thing is crazy, and they’re really in submission; they just don’t know it yet,” Trump told Fox News.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced new punitive measures against Iran Thursday, vowing to seize frozen Iranian state assets to compensate Gulf allies for damage caused by Iranian retaliatory strikes. Iran has launched retaliatory attacks against Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, all three of which host permanent US military bases, in response to recent US strikes. “Any damage it inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian Accounts,” Bessent wrote on X. He added that “any tolls paid to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority will be offset by funds extracted from their accounts.” The authority is a new Iranian agency established to collect transit fees for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint that Tehran has effectively closed to most commercial traffic since the early days of the war.
The escalating threats and ongoing military action come as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio prepares for an upcoming visit to Gulf states, with planned stops in Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE, Middle East Eye reported.