A dramatic political realignment appears imminent in South Australia according to latest polling data from Roy Morgan Research. The survey reveals a substantial erosion of support for the Liberal National Party (LNP) alongside a remarkable surge for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation movement.
The comprehensive study, conducted among 2,172 South Australian voters between February 19-23, projects a commanding victory for incumbent Premier Peter Malinauskas and the Labor Party. Labor’s primary support stands at 35%, positioning them for what could become the most significant electoral triumph this century with an estimated 59% two-party preferred outcome.
Most strikingly, the polling indicates One Nation has captured 28% of primary support—an extraordinary increase of 25.4 percentage points since the 2022 state election. This surge potentially positions the controversial party as the official opposition in South Australia’s parliament.
Conversely, the Liberal National Party faces catastrophic decline, with primary support collapsing by 19.7 percentage points to a mere 16.5%. Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn now confronts the prospect of leading her party to its worst electoral performance in decades.
The Greens register 11% support while independents and minor parties collectively account for 9%. Should these projections materialize in the upcoming state election, South Australia would witness its most substantial political upheaval in thirty years, fundamentally reshaping the state’s opposition dynamics.