Historical precedents never suggested that achieving lasting stability in the Middle East would be straightforward. Yet the rapid deterioration of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement brokered by President Donald Trump just three months ago presents a sobering reality check. What was hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough has given way to renewed violence and political fragmentation across the region.
The Gaza ceasefire, which required Hamas to disarm, has proven predictably unworkable. Approximately 400 casualties have been recorded since the agreement took effect, as the militant group maintains its arsenal while facing continued Israeli military operations. The absence of any new security authority or governance structure has left a vacuum filled by ongoing violence. Israel’s recent ban on 37 humanitarian organizations from operating in Gaza, citing non-compliance with new regulations, has further exacerbated tensions.
More concerning still is the emerging rift between key Arab powers. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, traditionally aligned Gulf partners, now support opposing factions in Yemen and Sudan’s civil conflicts—both of which have proven deadlier than the Gaza hostilities. The December 30th bombing of an Emirati weapons shipment by Saudi forces in Yemen demonstrates how regional cooperation has unraveled. This fragmentation threatens any prospect of unified Arab support for Palestinian statehood.
Iran presents a complex picture of internal unrest amid external aggression. Widespread protests against economic deterioration and government repression have weakened the regime, which continues to fuel conflicts through proxy groups across the region. Though diminished by strikes on its nuclear facilities and proxy defeats, Iran maintains financial channels through weapons sales to Russia. President Trump’s threatened intervention to support Iranian protesters adds another layer of uncertainty to regional dynamics.
European nations that recently recognized Palestinian statehood now bear responsibility for advancing concrete plans for its realization. Countries including Britain, France, Spain and Ireland must leverage their diplomatic influence at the United Nations and with regional partners to push for viable solutions. While the Trump administration maintains primary influence, European diplomacy could play a crucial role in mediating Arab differences and balancing unconditional support for Israel.
The path forward requires concerted pressure on all parties—from Gulf states to Israel and Hamas—to transform fragile ceasefires into durable political solutions. Though the challenges remain formidable, coordinated international engagement represents the only alternative to perpetual conflict.