标签： North America

A new joint investigation by three leading democratic security organizations has uncovered coordinated efforts by foreign actors from Russia and the United States to inflame separatist sentiment in Canada’s western province of Alberta, posing a direct threat to the country’s democratic stability and national sovereignty. The findings come at a critical moment, as a grassroots separatist movement has confirmed it has collected enough signatures via a citizen petition to trigger a possible independence referendum as early as October 19 this year.

The Alberta separatist movement grew out of long-standing frustrations labeled “western alienation,” a sentiment held by many local residents who argue their province’s priorities, particularly around its abundant natural resource reserves, are consistently sidelined by federal policymakers based in Ottawa. While support for full independence remains a minority position, recent polling puts backing for separation at roughly 25% of the province’s population, and the grassroots push for a public vote has gained measurable traction in recent months.

Released Wednesday by the Global Centre for Democratic Resilience, the Centre for Artificial Intelligence, Data and Conflict, and DisinfoWatch, the report details how foreign actors are leveraging existing genuine regional grievances — including widespread beliefs that Alberta’s resource wealth is unfairly exploited by the federal government — to push division across Canada. Disinformation operations are being carried out through social media platforms, Russian-aligned information networks, and covert online accounts, the investigation found.

Researchers emphasized that when outside powers amplify separatist rhetoric, normalize territorial break-up, erode public trust in Canadian democratic institutions, and encourage national division, the debate is no longer a purely domestic provincial political issue. “It becomes a direct threat to Canada’s democratic integrity, national security, and cognitive sovereignty,” the report’s authors wrote.

Marcus Kolga, director of DisinfoWatch, told the BBC that protecting unmanipulated domestic debate is a core priority for Canadian security. The social media accounts analyzed in the investigation all had documented histories of spreading disinformation in previous conflicts and political campaigns. Their content, researchers confirmed, is deliberately crafted to stoke tension around the separatist debate and is targeted to reach like-minded Albertans already sympathetic to separatist ideas.

The report characterizes Russia’s involvement in the movement as covert, doctrinally aligned, operationally active, and sustained over time. The end goal of these operations is to push foreign-backed narratives into local public discourse, creating what researchers call a “laundering effect” that blends local grievances with foreign strategic goals to amplify division. The investigation also uncovered the use of modern digital tools to spread disinformation: economic opportunists are leveraging generative artificial intelligence, paid voice actors, and professional video production to create content that mimics authentic Canadian political commentary, flooding public debate with false and misleading claims.

Beyond Russian covert activity, the report notes that American influencers have also joined the campaign, pouring external fuel on the separatist fire to provoke political unrest. Kolga added that senior officials from former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration held direct meetings with Alberta separatist leaders and made public statements endorsing their separatist cause. The revelation of these contacts earlier this year prompted Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta’s Premier to issue a joint statement calling on the United States to respect Canadian sovereignty.

Even if the referendum moves forward in October, and even if a majority votes in favor of separation, the path to full independence would be long and fraught with uncertainty. Canadian federal law sets clear binding conditions for any provincial independence referendum, including requiring a clearly worded ballot question, independent oversight from the House of Commons, and a “clear majority” of voter support. If all legal conditions are met, Alberta would still need to enter into complex, potentially years-long negotiation with the federal government to finalize the terms of separation.

In a sudden shift that sent ripples through global energy markets, former president Donald Trump announced a last-minute pause to his newly launched “Project Freedom” – an initiative designed to escort commercial vessels through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz – citing tentative progress toward a historic “Complete and Final Agreement” with Iran. The initial announcement eased fears of prolonged disruption to global oil supplies, which rely heavily on the strategic waterway for 20% of the world’s daily crude trade, and sparked fleeting hopes of a breakthrough ending months of open conflict in the Gulf.

Yet that optimism was rapidly dampened by Trump himself just 24 hours later, in a series of contradictory statements that have left policymakers, markets, and regional observers scrambling to parse the state of negotiations. After his Tuesday evening Truth Social post announcing the suspension to test whether a deal could be finalized, Trump struck a far more combative tone Wednesday morning, warning that a final agreement was still a “big assumption” and threatening to resume bombing campaigns against Iran at “a much higher level and intensity than it was before” if no deal materialized.

This backtracking came only hours after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had publicly announced that Operation Epic Fury, the American-led military campaign against Iran, had concluded. By Wednesday afternoon, Trump again shifted, telling PBS in a brief phone interview that he remained optimistic about the prospects of a deal while acknowledging past breakthrough attempts with Iran had failed repeatedly. “I felt that way before with them,” he said. “So we’ll see what happens.” He also added that it was “unlikely” he would deploy US negotiators for a second round of peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, which has served as a key mediating power for the discussions.

Multiple US outlets including Axios and Reuters have reported that negotiators from Washington and Tehran are edging closer to a short, 14-point one-page memorandum of understanding that would formally end Gulf hostilities. The broad framework, according to sources familiar with the draft, would first end active military clashes, then open the way for subsequent negotiations on unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, lifting crippling US sanctions on Iran, and implementing curbs on Iran’s nuclear program. A source close to Pakistani mediators even told Reuters Wednesday: “We will close this very soon. We are getting close.” But Tehran’s response has been far from supportive, with senior Iranian officials dismissing the reported draft as nothing more than an American wish list.

Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, wrote on X that the 14-point plan leaked to Axios amounted to nothing more than Washington’s “wish list”, adding that Iran “has its finger on the trigger and is ready” if the US fails to make “the necessary concessions”. Iran’s government already rejected an earlier, similar claim from Trump in April, when he told CBS that Tehran had “agreed to everything” including allowing US officials to remove Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium – a statement officials in Tehran denied outright.

Even among US foreign policy circles, there is widespread skepticism that a final, binding deal is imminent. Speaking to the BBC, Grant Rumley, a former Middle East policy advisor for both the Biden and second Trump administrations and current fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, noted that the Trump administration’s sudden rollout and equally sudden pause of Project Freedom signals they believe a deal is within reach, but past experience shows negotiations are far from guaranteed. “Clearly, the administration thinks a deal is possible, given the way they publicly rolled out Project Freedom only to suddenly pause it hours later,” Rumley said. “But we have been here before, and we’ve seen negotiations collapse at the last minute for a variety of reasons.”

Rumley added that even if the broadly worded one-page memorandum is agreed, it is highly unlikely to resolve the full scope of longstanding disputes between the two nations, particularly the technically complex details of any agreement governing Iran’s nuclear program. During the Obama administration, negotiating the full terms of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal took more than 20 months of intensive technical and diplomatic talks, a timeline that underscores how difficult it will be to finalize a comprehensive deal in the current climate.

Shipping analysts have also noted that Project Freedom, which launched just on Sunday, achieved minimal results in its short operational window, with only a small handful of commercial vessels daring to transit the strait while the operation was active. Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group think tank, told the BBC that Iran’s aggressive response to the operation – including shooting at commercial vessels and launching retaliatory strikes on targets in the United Arab Emirates – likely convinced Trump that the military initiative would not resolve the blockade. “There is no real policy process in this administration,” Vaez noted. “The president makes decisions based on impulse more than process, therefore there are inconsistencies that happen all the time.”

Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon assistant undersecretary for Middle East policy, added that the motivation behind Trump’s sudden pause of Project Freedom remains far from clear. “It’s unclear if the pause in Project Freedom was because of this one-page memorandum or because the 1,500 ships currently stuck behind the Strait of Hormuz wouldn’t transit even with the US security umbrella,” Mulroy said. “Iran is likely trying to determine that as well.” That uncertainty has left global oil markets on edge, as traders wait for clearer signals on whether the 4-week old ceasefire in the Gulf will hold or escalate into open conflict once again.

A high-profile public feud has broken out between New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and billionaire hedge fund titan Ken Griffin over Mamdani’s signature policy initiative: a sweeping plan to raise taxes on the city’s wealthiest residents and ultra-luxury properties.

Griffin, founder and CEO of Citadel, who holds the deed to the most expensive residential property ever purchased in the United States, slammed Mamdani’s proposal and the mayor’s public campaign for it during an appearance at Tuesday’s Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California. The billionaire called a video Mamdani filmed outside his $238 million Manhattan penthouse earlier this year “creepy and weird,” arguing that the stunt stokes dangerous political polarization that could lead to violence. He pointed to the fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson near the property as evidence that public targeting of high-profile individuals creates unacceptable security risks.

“Anything that creates, like an agitation, in the extremist on either side of the aisle is a frightening dynamic,” Griffin told attendees. In response to his criticism, Griffin confirmed he would accelerate his existing shift of business operations from Manhattan to Miami, saying Mamdani’s agenda sends a clear message that achievement is not welcome in New York City. “Mamdani was making it really clear: New York doesn’t welcome success,” Griffin said. “I will double down focusing on Miami to grow my business interests rather than Manhattan.”

The contentious video in question was filmed in April to align with the U.S. annual tax filing deadline, as part of Mamdani’s push to introduce a new annual pied-à-terre tax. This levy would apply to non-resident-owned properties valued above $5 million, a policy explicitly designed to target wealthy individuals who park large sums of wealth in New York City real estate without maintaining primary residency or paying full local taxes. Standing directly outside the building that houses Griffin’s penthouse, Mamdani used the 2019 purchase of that unit – which still holds the record for the most expensive home ever bought in the U.S. – as a prominent example of the gap the new tax would close. Mamdani projects the pied-à-terre tax alone will generate at least $500 million in new annual revenue for the city, while broader tax increases on corporations and the wealthy could raise up to $9 billion to fund the mayor’s policy agenda. That broader package includes lifting the city’s corporate tax rate from 7.25% to 11.5%.

In an official statement provided to the Wall Street Journal following Griffin’s comments, Mamdani’s press secretary Joe Calvello pushed back against the billionaire’s criticism while acknowledging his economic impact on New York. Calvello clarified that the mayor supports all successful New York-based entrepreneurs and business leaders, noting that Griffin himself is a major employer within city limits who contributes meaningfully to the local economy. However, Calvello reaffirmed the administration’s core position that the city’s current tax structure is fundamentally unfair and broken, requiring targeted reform to ask higher contributions from the wealthiest property owners.

Mamdani’s push for progressive wealth taxation has deeply divided public and political opinion in New York, with critics echoing Griffin’s warning that steep tax hikes will push wealthy individuals and major employers to relocate to lower-tax jurisdictions like Florida, ultimately reducing the city’s total tax revenue and harming local economic growth. Requests for additional comment from the mayor’s office were not immediately answered.

In a stunning political reversal that has sent ripples across global energy and diplomatic circles, US President Donald Trump has announced a pause to his highly publicized ‘Project Freedom’ — a mission designed to escort stranded commercial ships through the blocked Strait of Hormuz — just 48 hours after formally launching the operation. The abrupt shift in policy comes amid a fragile backdrop of escalating regional conflict sparked by the US-Israel war with Iran, which has seen Tehran effectively close off one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. The strait, which carries roughly 20% of global oil and gas supplies, has been the center of growing tensions after Iran issued threats to transiting vessels, sending global crude prices soaring and stoking widespread fears of a catastrophic hit to the already fragile global economy.

The chain of events unfolded rapidly over 48 hours, starting when Trump first announced the operation on his Truth Social platform at 21:35 BST on Sunday. In his initial post, the president framed the mission as a humanitarian gesture, writing: “For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business.” He added that he had instructed US representatives to work to ensure the safety of all ships and crews trapped in the region, where the Baltic and International Maritime Council estimates roughly 1,000 vessels carrying 20,000 seafarers remain stranded. Trump announced the operation would kick off “Monday morning Middle East time,” noting that ongoing diplomatic talks with Iran were progressing positively and could lead to a breakthrough agreement for all parties.

Shortly after midnight UK time on Monday, US Central Command (Centcom) confirmed the operation was underway, releasing details of the massive military deployment assembled for the mission: guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 land and sea-based aircraft, and 15,000 active-duty service members. UK maritime security agency UKMTO also confirmed that US officials were advising commercial vessels to transit through a secured corridor off the coast of Oman. By later that day, Centcom announced the first milestone of the mission: two US-flagged merchant ships had successfully completed transit through the strait and were continuing on their routes.

Tensions flared quickly, however, as competing claims emerged over a reported strike on Iranian boats. Trump claimed that US forces had destroyed seven Iranian fast boats in the strait during the operation’s first day, but Iranian state media outlet Tasnim disputed the account. The outlet instead reported that US strikes had hit two small civilian cargo vessels, killing five civilian seafarers. The same day brought a wave of additional attacks across the region: an Adnoc-affiliated oil tanker owned by the United Arab Emirates was hit in the strait, a South Korean-flagged vessel anchored off the UAE coast suffered an explosion, and a fire broke out at the key Fujairah oil port following what the UAE called an Iranian strike — a claim Iran quickly denied.

On Tuesday, top US defense officials doubled down on their commitment to the mission during a press briefing at the Pentagon. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters that “hundreds more ships from nations around the world are lining up to transit,” and emphasized that “Project Freedom is under way, commerce will be flowing, and America is once again leading with strength, clarity and purpose for the benefit of the entire world. Our will is unshakable.” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine added that the military expected more vessels to complete transits in the coming days, though neither official provided a clear timeline for how long the operation would continue. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed the administration’s confident tone at a separate White House briefing, framing the operation as a global public good, saying the US was acting as a “favour to the world” because it remained “the only country that can project power in that part of the world the way we’re doing now.”

Just hours after these bold public statements, Trump upended the entire mission. At 18:52 Washington time, he posted another announcement on Truth Social: the entire operation would be paused “for a short period of time.” The president framed the pause as a mutual agreement reached with Iran, citing “great progress” in ongoing diplomatic talks aimed at finalizing a new deal. He wrote: “Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.”

The sudden reversal came just hours after another attack: a French-owned CMA CGM container ship was hit in the strait, leaving multiple crew members injured and the vessel heavily damaged. Even before the pause, the global shipping industry had expressed deep skepticism of the mission. Shipping industry publication Lloyd’s List reported that ship owners and marine insurers said Project Freedom had failed to provide “sufficient clarity or credible protection to justify resuming transits” through the strait. As of the announcement, transit volumes through the strategic waterway continue to fall as security concerns escalate across the region.