标签： Europe

In recent developments reshaping transatlantic security architecture, Poland and Lithuania have officially acknowledged they are engaged in early-stage negotiations regarding their potential expanded participation in NATO’s U.S.-led nuclear deterrence framework, a shift that comes as the alliance re-evaluates its defense posture in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The discussions, which remain in their preliminary and classified phases, emerge against a backdrop of shifting U.S. defense priorities: former U.S. President Donald Trump had advanced efforts to reduce Washington’s conventional military footprint in Europe, leaving many eastern NATO allies seeking clearer guarantees of ongoing American security commitment. Expanding the scope of NATO nuclear deterrence has been floated as one pathway to reinforce those guarantees for frontline allies located closest to Russia.

Poland’s Deputy Defense Minister Paweł Zalewski confirmed the negotiations in comments to Polish Radio Wednesday, noting the talks are aimed at strengthening deterrence capabilities and carving out a more meaningful role for Warsaw in the alliance’s nuclear posture. At the same time, Zalewski emphasized that Poland has no current plans to permanently host U.S. nuclear weapons, describing such a step as “an extremely serious matter” with profound political ramifications.

Lithuania’s Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas similarly confirmed ongoing talks Tuesday, telling reporters via the BNS press agency that “Lithuania is certainly not standing on the sidelines” of the discussions, while declining to share further details due to classification rules.

The official confirmations follow a Tuesday Financial Times report citing anonymous sources, which claimed the U.S. has signaled openness to potentially stationing elements of its nuclear arsenal in additional NATO member states beyond the six current host countries that participate in the alliance’s longstanding nuclear sharing program.

That report also noted Poland and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — all NATO members sharing borders with or located adjacent to Ukraine and Russia — have expressed interest in potentially hosting bases for U.S. dual-capable aircraft, platforms engineered to carry both conventional and nuclear warheads.

When contacted for comment, the Pentagon declined to issue an official statement. A senior Defense Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity due to speaking unofficially, noted that the U.S. and NATO “continuously assess the security environment” and regularly update their deterrence frameworks to remain effective against evolving threats.

The U.S. has maintained a stockpile of nuclear weapons on European soil for decades, as a core component of Washington’s collective security guarantees to NATO allies. In the years following Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the heightened security threat Moscow poses to eastern NATO members, calls to expand U.S.-led nuclear cooperation with European allies have grown louder.

A NATO official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, clarified to the Associated Press that the alliance’s work to assess and adapt its nuclear deterrence posture has been ongoing for several years, and is not tied to any U.S. decision to adjust its conventional force footprint in Europe.

Today, NATO’s nuclear sharing program includes U.S. nuclear weapons deployed across six existing host nations: Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. The alliance structure relies on dual-capable aircraft operated by both the U.S. and allied nations, while the U.S. retains permanent, full control over all deployed nuclear weapons.

Poland has signaled interest in expanding its role in the U.S. deterrence program since 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Former Polish President Andrzej Duda even publicly expressed openness to hosting U.S. nuclear weapons on Polish territory. The current Polish government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk has taken a more cautious approach, framing its position only around seeking a larger role in deterrence efforts rather than full hosting.

Artur Kacprzyk, a nuclear deterrence analyst at the Warsaw-based Polish Institute of International Affairs, explained that Washington has repeatedly warned that stationing permanent nuclear weapons in eastern NATO member states would be excessively provocative to the Kremlin. Instead, Kacprzyk said a middle ground option — dubbed “nuclear sharing light” — has emerged as a likely compromise. Under this framework, eastern NATO allies would certify their own aircraft to carry U.S. nuclear weapons when needed, but no nuclear warheads would be permanently deployed on their territory. The certified aircraft would act as a backup reserve, ready for deployment if existing nuclear-capable aircraft in western Europe were disabled before they could be deployed in a crisis.

Beyond U.S.-led deterrence efforts, Poland and a number of other European allies have moved to expand cooperation on nuclear deterrence with France, the only remaining nuclear-armed member of the European Union following the UK’s 2020 Brexit exit. Earlier this year, Poland confirmed it would join the French-led initiative to coordinate deterrence efforts across European allies.

Kacprzyk noted that the French initiative is complementary to U.S.-led NATO deterrence, but operates with a separate structure. Alongside Poland, Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, Denmark and Norway have all expressed interest in the French framework, which allows for temporary deployments of French nuclear-capable aircraft to allied territory, permits partner nation participation in French deterrence exercises, and opens opportunities for allied non-nuclear forces to support French nuclear activities.

Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz confirmed Tuesday that expanded nuclear deterrence cooperation will be a key topic for discussion at the upcoming NATO defense ministers meeting scheduled for June 18 in Brussels, noting both the French initiative and the U.S. led program will be on the agenda.

While increased nuclear cooperation can help the U.S. offset planned conventional force reductions in Europe, Kacprzyk emphasized that expanded nuclear participation cannot fully replace the forward deployment of conventional troops, particularly for eastern NATO allies that border Russia. He argued that deterrence requires consistent, cohesive signaling to avoid sending mixed messages to potential adversaries: “Communicating ‘I might risk nuclear war to defend an ally but I don’t want to send my soldiers into the fight’ is a conflicting signal. You need coherent signals at all levels of deterrence.”

Days ahead of a high-stakes European Union summit gathering Western Balkan leaders on Montenegro’s Adriatic coast, Montenegrin authorities have taken the controversial step of barring entry to 87 Serbian citizens, citing verified intelligence that the group poses a direct threat to national and internal security.

The group traveled to Montenegro’s coastal town of Tivat on Wednesday via a chartered Air Serbia flight, and was immediately flagged as part of heightened pre-summit security screening organized by Montenegrin law enforcement and intelligence agencies. In an official joint statement issued by the country’s national police force and National Security Agency, officials confirmed the entry ban stemmed from concrete operational and intelligence findings that confirmed the group’s presence would undermine stability ahead of the Friday gathering.

Photos released by Montenegrin police show the group was carrying communications equipment and banners emblazoned with “Serbia wins” — the signature campaign slogan of populist Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and his ruling Serbian Progressive Party. Vucic is scheduled to attend the upcoming summit in the resort town, adding a layer of political tension to the incident.

Regional media reports from both Montenegro and Serbia have identified multiple members of the banned group as known pro-Vucic government activists, several of whom have been linked to violent attacks on student demonstrators during the 12-month wave of street protests opposing the Serbian president’s administration. Montenegrin police added that a number of the barred individuals hold prior criminal records and have a documented history of participating in high-risk public disorder events. Along with the entry ban, authorities seized two buses used to transport the group after it arrived in the country.

As of Wednesday, there has been no official response from the Serbian government to the move. The incident comes amid already strained bilateral relations between the two countries: Vucic recently declined to attend Montenegro’s 20th-anniversary ceremonies marking the country’s 2006 independence split from Serbia, and has repeatedly thrown his public support behind pro-Serbian political factions in Montenegro that oppose the country’s NATO membership and advocate for closer alignment with Russia.

The upcoming EU-Western Balkans summit in Tivat centers on advancing EU accession prospects for six Western Balkan candidate states: Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Montenegro. Each nation is at a distinct stage of the integration process, with Brussels prioritizing reforms across the region to counter growing geopolitical influence from Russia and China in the Western Balkans.

A high-stakes trial opened this week at London’s historic Old Bailey, where 19-year-old Norwegian national Johannes Natland has pleaded not guilty to a charge of conspiracy to murder, amid serious allegations that he was recruited by an Iranian-linked Swedish organized crime network to carry out a targeted killing in the United Kingdom.

Prosecutors laid out detailed allegations before a jury outlining how the alleged plot unfolded in March 2025. According to opening arguments from lead prosecutor Alistair Richardson, Natland was recruited by the Foxtrot network, a criminal group that the prosecution claims is controlled and used by the Iranian regime for extra-territorial targeted attacks. The plot was activated after the originally assigned assassin pulled out of the planned operation, prompting senior figures in the network to scramble for a replacement.

Court documents and messaging logs presented to the jury show that coded conversations on encrypted platforms between two co-conspirators, using the usernames ‘Generalen’ and ‘Agent 47’, reveal an urgent request for a foreign-based assassin to carry out a hit in the UK for a payout of €25,000. By March 15, Generalen had brought Natland into the plot, with the teenager telling his girlfriend he was embarking on a ‘crazy mission’, according to the prosecution.

Complications arose early when the group discovered Natland’s passport had expired. Within two days, he secured an emergency travel document and booked a flight from Stavanger Airport in Norway to Manchester Airport in northern England. Even after being warned that Generalen, one of his key recruiters, had already been arrested in connection with the conspiracy, Natland chose to proceed with the plan, Richardson told the jury.

On arrival at Manchester Airport, UK Border Force officials detained Natland after noting he carried only £40 in cash, had no pre-booked accommodation and no return ticket to Norway. When officers offered to contact his mother, the 19-year-old claimed he was a legal adult and declined assistance. Though border officials initially intended to refuse entry, they granted temporary permission to stay in the country for four days while arranging a return flight – a decision the prosecution described as surprising.

The following day, acting on instructions from Agent 47, Natland took a taxi to the West Yorkshire town of Huddersfield and checked into the Briar Court Hotel for a three-night stay. Via the encrypted messaging app Signal, he was directed to a hidden weapons cache at the base of a tree in a nearby wooded area, where prosecutors say he retrieved two working firearms: a semi-automatic pistol and a revolver, alongside 12 rounds of live ammunition.

After collecting the weapons, Natland purchased three pairs of rubber gloves from a local supermarket and was directed to a stolen vehicle that the prosecution alleges was intended to be used for the planned killing the following day. When a friend messaged Natland asking if he had completed the assassination, he replied ‘No tomorrow.’ When asked if he had test-fired the weapons, Natland responded, ‘Hell no. They will be tested on the guy,’ according to messaging logs presented to the court.

In the early hours of the morning before the planned attack, specialist counter-terrorism firearms officers raided Natland’s hotel room, Room 207, and took him into custody. Prosecutors told the jury that as Natland answered the door, he mimicked holding a gun and pretended to fire at the arresting officers. A search of the room turned up the two loaded weapons, 12 live rounds, and £2,000 in cash linked to the planned hit.

Natland has already entered a guilty plea to charges of illegal possession of the two firearms and the 12 rounds of ammunition, but he maintains his innocence on the core charge of conspiracy to murder. Prosecutors emphasized that the intended target of the planned killing has not been identified, but that the evidence clearly shows Natland had committed to carrying out the attack.

‘The defendant’s response to those warnings [of Generalen’s arrest] was not to pull out of what he was doing. Not to stop,’ Richardson told the jury. ‘He had signed up to, and intended to commit murder.’

The trial, which is being held at the Old Bailey, is expected to continue for approximately three weeks as the prosecution and defense present evidence and witness testimony to the jury.