标签： Asia

A senior Japanese academic and Sino-Japanese friendship leader is pressing the Japanese government to issue a formal public apology to Beijing over a deeply alarming breach of diplomatic protocol that took place in late March. Hisashi Inoue, honorary professor at Surugadai University and chairman of the Japan-China Friendship Association, has labeled the March 24 incident — where an active officer of the Japan Self-Defense Forces forced entry into the Chinese Embassy in Japan while armed with a knife — an extraordinarily severe violation of long-established international diplomatic norms. Inoue emphasized that the incident, which shocked diplomatic circles on both sides, constitutes a clear and grave breach of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, a foundational international treaty that guarantees the inviolability of diplomatic mission premises and the safety of diplomatic staff. As of the report’s update on April 1, 2026, the Japanese government has not extended a formal apology to China over the intrusion, only issuing a vague expression of regret over the event. Inoue argues that this mild, indirect response is wholly insufficient to address the severity of the incident and the risks it poses to bilateral ties. The long-time advocate for friendly Japan-China relations is calling on Japan’s top elected leader, the prime minister, and the country’s defense minister to deliver a formal, public apology to the Chinese government over the unacceptable incursion.

During an official state visit to Tokyo on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron publicly called for an immediate ceasefire to end escalating conflict in the Middle East, alongside joint commitments with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to deepen cross-sector bilateral cooperation spanning defense, critical resources, nuclear energy and space exploration.

Following closed-door bilateral talks, the two leaders outlined shared foundational principles during a joint press conference held at Tokyo’s Akasaka Palace. Macron emphasized that both Paris and Tokyo are united in their commitment to upholding international law, a rules-based global order, and shared democratic values. “This is why … we both advocate for a return to peace, a ceasefire, calm, and free passage through the Strait of Hormuz,” Macron stated. Takaichi echoed this position, noting the two leaders reached consensus on the urgent need to de-escalate regional tensions, guarantee unimpeded access through the strategically critical waterway, and protect global supply chain stability. Amid growing geopolitical uncertainty across the globe, Takaichi noted that strengthening ties and collaboration between Japan and France carries particular strategic weight.

Beyond regional diplomacy, the summit delivered concrete progress on multiple long-standing bilateral cooperation initiatives. A day prior to the leaders’ meeting, Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and his French counterpart Catherine Vautmir signed a formal road map outlining expanded defense cooperation through 2030, centered on increasing joint military exercises and personnel exchanges across the Indo-Pacific. In a separate signing ceremony, the two nations’ trade ministers formalized an agreement to collaborate on joint rare earths development projects. Rare earth elements are critical components for high-performance heat-resistant magnets used in defense systems and electric vehicle batteries, a market currently dominated by Chinese production. The two leaders also confirmed a new partnership to advance fast reactor technology and nuclear fuel recycling, an area where Japan has faced repeated technical and regulatory setbacks in recent years.

The bilateral summit comes amid a shifting geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific, where Japan and France have steadily ramped up defense cooperation over the past decade. France maintains permanent military forces, civilian populations and economic assets across its Indo-Pacific overseas territories, and has positioned itself as a key security partner for regional democracies seeking to counter balance growing Chinese influence across the region.

Macron’s visit to Japan also unfolded hours after U.S. President Donald Trump made controversial remarks shifting responsibility for security of the Strait of Hormuz to regional consumer nations. “That’s not for us. That’ll be for France and whoever’s using the strait,” Trump stated overnight. The U.S. president has publicly criticized European allies for what he frames as insufficient support for U.S.-backed Israeli military operations, and specifically called out France for being “very unhelpful” in the conflict. Macron did not address Trump’s comments during his prepared remarks at Wednesday’s press conference, where reporters were not given the opportunity to ask questions.

Looking ahead to the final day of Macron’s Tokyo visit on Thursday, he and Takaichi are scheduled to tour a Japanese private firm specializing in innovative space debris removal technology, a reflection of the two nations’ expanding collaboration in the space sector. Following the site visit, Macron will hold a formal courtesy meeting with Japan’s Emperor Naruhito and attend an official palace luncheon, before departing for South Korea to continue his East Asian diplomatic tour.

China’s Ministry of Public Security confirmed on Wednesday that a high-profile key figure connected to a large transnational criminal network focused on illegal gambling and telecom fraud has been successfully sent back to Chinese territory from Cambodia. The suspect, identified as Li Xiong, is considered a core member of the operation that victimized countless individuals through illegal financial scams and unregulated gambling activities, according to official statements.

This repatriation marks a significant milestone in China’s ongoing coordinated crackdown on cross-border organized crime, which has increasingly targeted criminal syndicates that operate across international borders to avoid domestic law enforcement. Criminal networks involved in transnational fraud and illegal gambling have long posed major threats to public safety and financial stability both in China and neighboring Southeast Asian nations, prompting bilateral law enforcement cooperation to dismantle these operations and bring fugitive suspects to justice.

The handover of Li Xiong underscores the growing collaborative relationship between Chinese and Cambodian law enforcement agencies in addressing shared transnational security challenges. For years, these criminal syndicates have exploited gaps in cross-border regulation to run large-scale scams that steal billions of yuan from Chinese residents and global victims annually, making coordinated repatriation efforts a critical component of regional anti-crime initiatives.

This operation aligns with China’s broader national strategy to combat transnational telecommunications fraud, online gambling, and other cross-border criminal activities that harm public interests. Chinese law enforcement officials have repeatedly emphasized that the country will continue to work with international partners to track down fugitive criminal suspects operating overseas, ensuring that no offenders can evade justice by fleeing beyond national borders.

One month into the military conflict launched by the United States and Israel against Iran, the two nations have yet to articulate a clear, coherent justification for their offensive, outline measurable strategic objectives, or lay out a viable exit strategy—even as they continue to claim steady military progress on the battlefield. What was supposed to be a quick, decisive campaign has instead dragged the entire Middle East into an avoidable, open-ended confrontation, after Iran mounted a far stronger coordinated response than Washington and Tel Aviv ever anticipated.

When former U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu greenlit the offensive, they fundamentally misjudged both the ideological cohesion of Iran’s ruling system and its decades-built defensive capacity. They never expected Tehran to respond with a level of preparedness unmatched in the regime’s modern history: launching coordinated strikes against U.S. military installations across the Persian Gulf, dealing heavy blows to Israeli civilian and military infrastructure, and partially or fully closing the Strait of Hormuz—triggering global oil and gas shortages that have already sent shockwaves through the world economy.

Driven by an overreliance on overwhelming military superiority, the U.S. and Israeli leadership bet that air and sea power would force Iran’s Islamic government to surrender quickly, clearing the way for a pro-Western regime change led by the Iranian people. That outcome has not materialized, and now a clear military victory grows more out of reach by the day. For Trump, the only viable path forward is a sharp pivot to diplomacy—and pressure on Netanyahu to follow suit.

### The Roots of Iran’s Unexpected Resilience

Before the outbreak of war, Iran’s ruling regime faced steep headwinds: intense domestic pressure and widespread international condemnation following its violent crackdown on mass public protests that left thousands of Iranians dead. It was also reeling from Israel’s systematic weakening of its key regional proxies, particularly Hamas and Hezbollah, and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s long-standing allied regime in Syria.

Even as Tehran remained distrustful of Trump’s administration, it had agreed to re-enter negotiations over its contentious nuclear program, with a widely reported breakthrough on the horizon. Omani mediators announced in late February that a final deal was within reach, before the U.S.-Israeli offensive derailed the process. Far from crippling the regime, the unprovoked invasion gave Iran’s government an opening to showcase the defensive resilience it had spent 40 years building.

Iran’s governing, security, and command structures were explicitly designed to withstand the loss of top leaders and commanders. The regime proved this endurance during the 1980s, when it survived internal dissent, an eight-year full-scale war with Iraq, decades of U.S. containment, and open hostility from most of its regional neighbors. It has outlasted widespread public discontent, theocratic governance frictions, and repeated policy failures, thanks to three core structural strengths: deep ideological commitment to revolutionary Islamism among Iran’s large Shia population, a rare combination of ideological rigidity and pragmatic policy flexibility, and a deeply entrenched, dedicated security, intelligence, and administrative bureaucracy whose own survival is tied directly to the regime’s survival.

While many Iranians have long pushed for political change at home, the vast majority remain deeply proud of their nation’s millennia-old cultural and civilizational heritage, and uniformly reject foreign aggression, occupation, and humiliation of their country. This nationalist sentiment is what has driven widespread popular rallying around the regime, a pattern that repeats throughout Iranian history when the nation faces external attack.

### A War of Attrition No Side Can Win Quickly

Fully aware it cannot match the conventional firepower of the U.S. and Israeli militaries, Iran has deployed a creative, asymmetrical “mosaic defense” strategy tailored to exploit the weaknesses of its adversaries. This approach includes targeting vulnerable U.S. bases across the Persian Gulf with precision drones and missiles, and decentralizing command structures to ensure leadership can be quickly replaced if top officials are killed in strikes.

Tehran has also received critical external support: Russia and China have supplied dual-use technologies and maintained oil import revenues to keep Iran’s economy functioning, and multiple intelligence reports confirm Russia has shared real-time intelligence on the location of U.S. assets in the region. Even with their capabilities degraded, Iran’s regional proxies remain active and capable of opening new fronts: Hezbollah has launched sustained attacks on northern Israel, while Yemeni Houthis have joined the conflict and are preparing to disrupt commercial shipping through the Red Sea.

Taken together, these factors add up to a clear reality: the Iranian government is committed to denying the U.S. and Israel any form of victory, at any cost. What began as a planned quick strike has devolved into a prolonged war of endurance with no clear military end in sight.

### Negotiated Settlement is the Only Path Forward

It remains impossible to predict how long all three parties will sustain the conflict, but current conditions have drastically narrowed the window for a diplomatic resolution. Iran has shown no willingness to surrender core demands, and the U.S. and Israel remain deeply divided over their end goals for the war.

For Trump, domestic political pressure may force a shift toward compromise: with war mounting economic and human costs, and his poll numbers sliding ahead of critical midterm elections, he may well settle for a deal that freezes Iran’s nuclear program and reopens the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping. Netanyahu, by contrast, remains unflinching in his maximalist goals: he is determined to destroy the Islamic government and permanently cripple Iran’s status as a regional power.

What has become increasingly clear after a month of fighting is that a military conclusion to the conflict is effectively impossible. The only sustainable path forward is a negotiated settlement. The responsibility to force Netanyahu into line and lead diplomatic efforts will fall to Trump, and many analysts already agree that no matter how the war ultimately ends, Iran has already emerged as the de facto winner in the conflict.