标签： Asia

China has formally implemented stringent export controls on dual-use goods to Japan, a move that Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning characterized as “completely legitimate and reasonable” in response to what Beijing perceives as provocative statements from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan.

The diplomatic friction emerged following Prime Minister Takaichi’s November parliamentary comments suggesting that a “Taiwan contingency” could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, language interpreted by Chinese officials as implying potential military intervention in the Taiwan Strait. Mao Ning asserted that these remarks represented both an infringement on China’s sovereignty and a blatant interference in internal affairs.

China’s Ministry of Commerce announced the strengthened export controls effective immediately, explicitly prohibiting “the export of all dual-use items to Japanese military users, for Japan’s military use, and for any other end-users and end-use purposes that help enhance Japan’s military capabilities.” Dual-use items encompass products and technologies with both civilian and military applications.

Economic analysts warn of significant repercussions for Japanese industry. Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute, identified potential restricted categories including semiconductors, electronic components, precision machinery, EV-related lithium compounds, rare earths, telecommunications equipment, and personal computers. Japanese trade data indicates these categories collectively represent approximately 42% of Japan’s total imports from China, valued at roughly 10.7 trillion yen ($49.2 billion) in 2024.

Hidetoshi Tashiro, chief economist at Japan’s Infinity LLC, highlighted particular concern regarding rare earth elements, noting that automotive and electronics industries could face production disruptions if these materials are included in restrictions. Nomura Research Institute projections suggest three months of rare earth export restrictions could cost Japan approximately 660 billion yen, reducing GDP by an annualized 0.11%.

The uncertainty surrounding specific controlled items has already created trade hesitancy, with Japanese firms reportedly reluctant to place or accept orders without clear definitional parameters. Tokyo’s stock market responded negatively, with the benchmark Nikkei index closing down 1.06% following the announcement.

The geopolitical landscape between the United States and China experienced significant volatility throughout 2025, characterized by dramatic fluctuations in diplomatic relations and trade policies. According to experts monitoring the bilateral relationship, the year presented a complex tapestry of escalating tensions followed by cautious diplomatic engagements.

Gary Hufbauer, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, described the relationship as experiencing a ‘rollercoaster’ dynamic rather than the gradual decline witnessed in previous years. The turbulence stemmed primarily from calculated political maneuvers by the U.S. administration rather than accidental developments, creating periods of intense confrontation followed by gradual cooling-off phases.

The relationship reached a critical juncture in April 2025 when the Trump administration implemented triple-digit tariff rates on Chinese imports, representing one of the most aggressive trade measures in recent history. China responded with immediate retaliatory measures, bringing both nations to the brink of a full-scale trade war. These reciprocal actions rendered cross-border trade economically challenging for numerous product categories, generating substantial market instability and creating significant uncertainty for businesses operating in both countries.

China maintained a consistent strategic position throughout these developments, encapsulated by the widely circulated phrase: ‘Talk, our door is open; fight, we’ll respond till the end.’ This principle guided Beijing’s approach to the escalating tensions while leaving room for diplomatic resolution.

Several factors ultimately prompted the White House to reassess its aggressive stance. Soaring consumer prices within the United States, particularly affecting middle-class households, combined with substantial losses in agricultural exports to China—especially soybean shipments—created mounting economic pressure. Additionally, China’s implementation of rare-earth export controls demonstrated Beijing’s strategic leverage in the technological supply chain, forcing a recalculation of American trade strategy.

The latter part of 2025 saw renewed high-level trade discussions and head-of-state diplomacy, suggesting both nations recognize the mutual benefits of stability. Experts indicate that sustained dialogue remains crucial for establishing predictable relations moving into 2026, though the underlying structural tensions continue to require careful management.

BEIJING — Diplomatic relations between China and Japan have entered a new phase of confrontation as 2026 begins, reigniting historical grievances and contemporary geopolitical tensions. The current escalation stems from November remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting Japan might intervene militarily if China moves against Taiwan—comments Beijing characterized as a direct threat to its sovereignty.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning condemned Takaichi’s statements as “erroneous remarks” that “infringe upon China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” during a Wednesday briefing. This diplomatic offensive follows recent Chinese military exercises around Taiwan and represents the latest chapter in a complex relationship marked by alternating cooperation and confrontation.

The current tensions are deeply rooted in historical context. Japan’s colonization of Taiwan in 1895 and its brutal occupation of parts of China in the 1930s-40s created enduring resentment that continues to shape bilateral relations. Contemporary flashpoints include disputes over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and Japanese officials’ visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which honors war criminals from Japan’s imperial past.

This week, China implemented multiple measures against Japan, including restrictions on “dual-use exports” that could be adapted for military purposes. While not specifying banned items, the move potentially affects everything from drone technology to rare earth minerals. Japan’s Foreign Ministry condemned the restrictions as “deviating significantly from international practice” and “absolutely unacceptable.”

Additionally, China launched an investigation into alleged dumping of Japanese dichlorosilane—a chemical used in chip manufacturing—after prices dropped 31% between 2022-2024. In a more provocative move, a Chinese arms control association released a report titled “Nuclear Ambitions of Japan’s Right-Wing Forces: A Serious Threat to World Peace,” accusing Japan of failing to confront its militaristic past.

Simultaneously, China conspicuously strengthened ties with South Korea, hosting President Lee Jae Myung for a four-day visit that produced 24 export contracts worth $44 million and agreements on trade, technology, and environmental cooperation. Chinese media highlighted South Korea surpassing Japan as the top destination for Chinese outbound flights, alongside government warnings about “significant risks” to Chinese citizens in Japan.

Regional analysts suggest the current tensions may prove more persistent than previous diplomatic spats. Sebastian Maslow, an East Asia specialist at the University of Tokyo, noted that “with diplomatic channels in short supply and domestic political agendas paramount, an off-ramp for the current dispute is not in sight.” The situation is further complicated by the United States’ planned arms sales to Taiwan, adding another layer of complexity to already fraught regional dynamics.