A significant rupture has emerged within the Gulf coalition in Yemen, as Saudi Arabia conducted precision airstrikes targeting forces aligned with its former partner, the United Arab Emirates. The bombing of the port of al-Mukalla, which Riyadh claims interdicted a UAE-linked weapons shipment destined for the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), marks an unprecedented escalation between the two regional powers.
The confrontation stems from the STC’s recent offensive against Saudi-backed government troops, an action Saudi authorities allege was fueled by Emirati pressure and support. The Saudi foreign ministry condemned these moves as ‘highly dangerous’ and a violation of the coalition’s founding principles. In a swift response, the UAE’s foreign ministry rebuked the accusations and subsequently announced a ‘comprehensive assessment’ of its role, culminating in a decision to formally end its military mission in Yemen.
Diplomatic sources revealed to Middle East Eye that the Saudi strikes surprised both Emirati leadership and U.S. officials, indicating a severe breakdown in communication. Analysts now assess the strategic advantages each nation brings to the potential conflict. While the UAE commands an extensive network of proxy militias estimated at up to 200,000 fighters, Saudi Arabia holds superior control over key logistical channels—airspace, maritime routes, and land border crossings—which could severely restrict Emirati efforts to rearm allies like the STC.
Experts including Mohammed al-Basha and Hesham Alghannam note that Saudi Arabia is leveraging international legitimacy, economic influence, and hard-learned lessons from its previous campaign against the Houthis. The open desert terrain in southern Yemen, unlike the northern mountains, gives the Saudi air force a distinct advantage against STC forces.
The underlying tensions, simmering for years, have been exacerbated by Saudi Arabia’s independent negotiations with the Houthi rebels, a process that sidelined the UAE. This fissure has created a complex multi-front conflict, with analysts warning that the Iran-aligned Houthis may emerge as the primary beneficiaries of the intra-Gulf rivalry. The situation presents a volatile landscape where previous alliances have shattered, raising the specter of prolonged instability and a reconfiguration of power dynamics throughout Yemen and the broader region.