Pakistan’s proposed electricity pricing reforms are poised to significantly reshape the nation’s economic landscape, transferring financial burdens from industries to middle-class households while potentially reigniting inflationary pressures. The International Monetary Fund-mandated plan, requiring only formal approval to take effect, would dismantle the longstanding system where businesses subsidized residential energy bills.
Financial analysts at Optimus Capital Management project the reforms could trigger a 1.1 percentage point increase in inflation over the next twelve months. The restructuring would reduce industrial power prices by 13-15% while eliminating 102 billion rupees ($365 million) in subsidies. Middle-class households face the starkest impact, with estimates suggesting approximately 50% higher electricity costs.
The proposed changes emerge against a complex economic backdrop. Pakistan experienced one of Asia’s most severe inflation spikes in 2023, reaching nearly 40% due to currency devaluation, rising fuel costs, and previous IMF-backed reforms. Although inflation has moderated to 5.8%, the new power pricing threatens to reverse this progress.
Energy finance expert Ahtasam Ahmad of Renewables First noted, “The significant decline in average household purchasing power means these changes compound the inflationary effects we’ve witnessed since 2022.”
The overhaul extends beyond traditional pricing structures. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has introduced substantial fixed charges: households consuming 100-300 monthly units face rate increases up to 76%, while the lowest-income users (1-100 units) will see fixed charges jump from zero to PKR 400.
Simultaneously, the regulator reduced compensation rates for rooftop solar users exporting power to the grid, replacing the previous net-metering system. This decision prompted Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to order an immediate review, citing concerns about cost transfers from 466,000 solar users to 37.6 million grid consumers.
Energy consultancy Arzachel warned that excessively high fixed charges risk driving consumers toward complete grid defection, potentially undermining long-term system stability. The changes reflect ongoing tensions within Pakistan’s IMF program, which has mandated utility price hikes since 2023 to support struggling state power companies.