In a televised discussion on Tuesday, Adhwan al-Ahmari, a prominent Saudi journalist and political analyst, presented a provocative assessment of the escalating tensions in the Middle East. During his appearance on Riyadh-based Asharq News, Ahmari articulated growing suspicions that the United States and Israel might be orchestrating a strategic trap aimed at drawing Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations into direct military confrontation with Iran.
The analyst pointed to numerous unverified claims of false-flag attacks in the region, suggesting these incidents may be part of a broader geopolitical maneuver. ‘Some perceive this conflict as an American-Israeli trap designed to implicate Gulf countries and pull them into a confrontation with Iran,’ Ahmari stated, noting that ‘this hypothesis gains credibility daily’ as trust between Washington and its GCC allies continues to deteriorate.
Ahmari raised alarming questions about American commitment to the region: ‘What if the US announces after a week, ten days, or two weeks that it has achieved all its objectives and declares the war over, subsequently leaving Gulf states in an open-ended confrontation with Iran?’
The Saudi analyst emphasized that military actions targeting Iranian leadership or nuclear facilities would prove futile without the complete dismantlement of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He described the IRGC as an elite military institution specifically structured to protect Iran’s ruling system, distinct from the nation’s conventional armed forces.
‘Eliminating the Iranian supreme leader without neutralizing the IRGC achieves nothing. Dismantling the nuclear program without eradicating the IRGC accomplishes nothing. The IRGC would inevitably return with strengthened capabilities,’ Ahmari warned.
He called for greater transparency from the Trump administration, demanding clear explanations regarding US motives and anticipated timeline for the conflict. President Trump initially projected a four-to-five-day engagement, which has since expanded to four-to-five weeks, with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth recently suggesting an open-ended commitment—a development Ahmari characterized as ‘the strangest military campaign in history.’
The analyst further described Iran’s attacks on Gulf nations hosting US military facilities as ‘suicidal behavior,’ noting that contemporary Iran appears significantly weaker than a decade ago due to the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom protests and severe economic crises exacerbated by intensified US sanctions and a US-backed bank collapse.