Lebanon is poised to declare the complete disarmament of Hezbollah in its southern territories within weeks, marking a pivotal development in its security landscape. This announcement comes as the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) prepare to extend their disarmament operations to northern regions, targeting remaining weapon caches belonging to the group.
The disarmament process south of the Litani River has progressed significantly under the framework of a 2024 ceasefire agreement with Israel. Ed Gabriel of the American Task Force on Lebanon confirmed these advancements following recent consultations with US and Arab officials, noting that military planning is now shifting toward northern operations.
This potential declaration arrives during a period of profound transformation for Lebanon, recently characterized by a senior US official as a ‘failed state.’ The nation continues to engage in US-brokered direct talks with Israel while simultaneously enduring cross-border strikes from its southern neighbor.
The disarmament process has unfolded against a complex geopolitical backdrop. Hezbollah’s military capabilities were substantially degraded following Israel’s invasion and targeted assassination of longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, compounded by the collapse of the Assad government in Syria which severed critical Iranian supply lines.
While Hezbollah maintains its right to bear arms against Israeli threats, the group has provided tacit consent to LAF operations in southern territories. However, significant arsenals remain in southern Beirut and the Bekaa Valley according to Western and Arab diplomatic sources.
International verification remains crucial, with Lebanon previously expressing willingness to accept US or French troops to validate disarmament claims. This validation is particularly significant as Beirut seeks to unlock promised reconstruction funds from Gulf states, contingent upon demonstrated progress in weapons dismantlement.
The political landscape has shifted notably, with US-favored leadership in Beirut and increasing tensions with Tehran reflected in Lebanon’s rejection of recent Iranian diplomatic overtures.