Israeli authorities have brought criminal charges against a military servicemember and an additional individual for allegedly exploiting confidential intelligence to wager on future combat operations through cryptocurrency prediction markets. The country’s Shin Bet security agency disclosed on Thursday that both suspects leveraged their privileged access to classified information to place bets regarding Israeli military actions across the Middle Eastern theater.
This unprecedented security breach emerged following a Kan public television investigation last month that revealed a Polymarket user had profited over $152,000 by accurately predicting an Israeli strike against Iran in June. The successful bettor had placed substantial sums across multiple specific propositions, including precise timelines for military engagements against Iran and the conclusion of active conflicts.
Israel’s defense establishment issued a stern warning regarding the grave national security implications of such activities. An official government statement emphasized that ‘placing bets based on secret and classified information poses a real security risk to IDF operations and to the security of the state,’ adding that authorities would ‘act decisively to thwart and bring to justice anyone involved in the unlawful use of classified information.’
Polymarket, a U.S.-based cryptocurrency prediction platform, enables users to speculate on virtually any global event. The site currently hosts active betting markets concerning the timing of Israeli strikes against Gaza and Lebanon, the number of nations Israel might attack in February, and progress in Middle Eastern peace negotiations. Additional markets allow wagering on potential military actions by Israel and the United States against Iran.
The platform has previously drawn scrutiny following a similar incident where a gambler netted approximately $400,000 by correctly predicting a U.S. operation against Venezuela and the attempted abduction of President Nicolás Maduro mere hours before it occurred. Current Polymarket metrics indicate a 53% probability of a U.S. attack on Iran by June 2026, with a 16% chance of such military action occurring before February 28th—a market that has attracted over $12 million in wagers.