India’s exports to the United States experienced a significant rebound in October, rising to $6.3 billion, a 14.5% increase from September’s $5.5 billion. This marks the first uptick in five months, despite the continued imposition of steep tariffs by the Trump administration, including a 25% penalty on Indian purchases of Russian oil. The resurgence in trade comes as Indian state-run oil companies agreed to import more liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the US, and the Trump administration exempted several agricultural products from reciprocal tariffs, benefiting Indian exporters. Trade negotiations between the two nations are progressing, with key aspects of the deal nearing closure, according to an Indian official. However, India’s overall goods exports fell by 11.8% year-on-year in October, with 15 of its top 20 markets witnessing declines. Analysts suggest that tariff-exempt sectors like smartphones and pharmaceuticals may have contributed to the improved performance. Despite the October rebound, India’s exports to the US have dropped by 28.4% between May and October, erasing over $2.5 billion in monthly export value. Trade tensions appear to be easing, with India finalizing a major deal to source 10% of its annual LPG needs from the US. The Trump administration has been pushing India to reduce its reliance on Russian oil, which has become a significant market for India amid Western sanctions. While India has not officially confirmed plans to cut Russian oil imports, trade talks are advancing rapidly. Additionally, the US’s decision to roll back reciprocal tariffs on certain agricultural products is expected to benefit India’s exports by exempting approximately $1 billion worth of goods from duties.
