On Saturday morning, Icelanders headed to polling stations across the island nation to cast their ballots in a high-stakes national referendum that will decide whether the country reopens stalled membership negotiations with the European Union. The close-running race is being watched closely by EU leadership in Brussels, as its outcome could reshape the bloc’s future enlargement trajectory.
Iceland first submitted its EU membership application in 2009, in the aftermath of a devastating financial collapse that wiped out much of the country’s banking sector and sent its economy into a deep recession. Negotiations progressed for several years, but the process was halted indefinitely in 2013 after a Euroskeptic government coalition won national elections.
Polling ahead of the referendum showed the race on a knife edge. The most recent survey from Gallup put opposition to restarting talks at 51.6 percent, with support at 48.4 percent, a margin small enough to fall within the poll’s statistical margin of error. Voting opened at 9 a.m. GMT and closes at 10 p.m. GMT, and no exit polls are planned. Given the tight margin, the first official reliable results are not expected until late Saturday at the earliest. Around 273,000 eligible voters are answering a simple yes-no question: “Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?”
If the yes side secures a majority, the Icelandic government will open negotiations with Brussels to finalize a full accession agreement, which would then go before voters in a second public referendum on formal membership. One of the biggest sticking points in past talks has been control over Iceland’s fishing industry, the backbone of the national economy, which Iceland insists on keeping full regulatory control over. This time around, EU officials have signaled a greater willingness to compromise on the issue.
While the core of the debate over EU membership is rooted in domestic policy and economics, global geopolitical shifts have added a new layer of context to the 2024 referendum. The return of large-scale war to Europe following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, combined with the unpredictable foreign policy of second-term U.S. President Donald Trump, has shifted how some Icelanders think about national security. Iceland has no standing military, relying entirely on NATO membership and a 1951 bilateral defense agreement with the U.S. for its security as a strategically critical sub-Arctic nation. Trump has previously made threats to take control of Greenland, and has confused the island territory with Iceland on multiple occasions, stoking quiet concern among Icelandic voters about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees.
“The fundamentals (of the debate) are very domestic, but there is a significant impact that has come with the second term of (US President) Donald Trump and this sort of geopolitical upheaval,” Eirikur Bergmann, a political scientist at Bifrost University, told AFP.
Domestically, the debate splits along lines shaped by Iceland’s post-crisis economic boom. With the national economy now growing strongly and Iceland already enjoying full access to the EU single market as a member of the European Economic Area, many opponents argue there is simply no need to pursue full membership. Opponents frame membership as a surrender of national sovereignty to unelected bureaucrats in Brussels, pointing out that Iceland built its current prosperity from poverty in just a century through independent policy.
“It’s like if you are in a relationship with someone you don’t live with, and if you lose something you have by getting married, then why get married?” said Hjordis Vilhjalmsdottir, a 60-year-old radio presenter who wore clothing in the red, blue and white of Iceland’s flag while voting. “We don’t need Brussels to rule us. We can do it ourselves. We used to be one of the poorest countries in Europe only a hundred years ago. And now we are the most prominent country in Europe. We did it ourselves,” added 65-year-old entrepreneur Elias Theodorsson.
On the pro-membership side, supporters point to the downsides of Iceland’s current prosperity: soaring inflation and sky-high interest rates that have put massive financial strain on ordinary households. Some homeowners are paying as much as 9 percent interest on their mortgages, making entry to the eurozone — which would bring far lower interest rates — an extremely attractive prospect for many working Icelanders.
“There’s such a big gap, and it would mean so much for my household,” said Alexandra Yr van Erven, a 32-year-old university administrator. “I just think it’s the responsible thing to do, to give this government the agency to negotiate a deal with the EU, so we can see what the possibilities are. And then we can evaluate the deal.”
For the EU, a yes vote would mark a major milestone for the bloc’s enlargement project, which has not added a wealthy net contributor to the EU budget since Austria, Finland and Sweden joined in 1995. EU leadership views Icelandic membership as a positive example of enlargement that could build momentum for admitting other candidate countries, including the Western Balkan nation of Montenegro. It could also shift the conversation in Norway, another wealthy Nordic nation that has twice rejected EU membership and remains outside the bloc as a wealthy non-member state.
“Iceland’s decision would undoubtedly strengthen the case for the EU to welcome new members,” EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos noted.