Turkish officials are monitoring the protest movement in Iran with significant concern, emphasizing the critical importance of regional stability while acknowledging the legitimate grievances of Iranian citizens. Despite historical rivalries between Ankara and Tehran across multiple Middle Eastern theaters including Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, Turkey maintains that preserving Iran’s territorial integrity remains a paramount priority.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan provided a comprehensive assessment during recent televised remarks, characterizing the current demonstrations as smaller in scale than the 2022 protest movement—though this evaluation is contested by some Iranian analysts who consider them the most significant since 1999. Fidan asserted that Iran is experiencing the consequences of its ambitious foreign policy decisions over the past three decades, which have resulted in severe Western economic sanctions that disproportionately affect the country’s young, vibrant population.
The Foreign Minister notably addressed external influences, stating that Iran’s rivals are actively manipulating the protests from abroad. “Mossad doesn’t hide it; they are calling on the Iranian people to revolt against the regime through their own internet and Twitter accounts,” Fidan revealed, while simultaneously expressing doubt that these demonstrations would achieve Israel’s desired outcome of governmental collapse.
Analysts from the SETA think tank and the Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara provide additional context for Turkey’s cautious approach. Mustafa Caner emphasized that despite underlying tensions, Turkey prioritizes Iran’s stability, while Serhan Afacan noted that recent demonstrations have included provocative acts such as mosque attacks that complicate Ankara’s position.
Turkey’s concerns extend beyond ideological considerations to practical security implications. The country fears potential refugee flows similar to those experienced during the Syrian civil war, which resulted in Turkey hosting 4-5 million refugees. Additionally, Turkey worries about increased activity by Kurdish militant groups, particularly the PJAK (Kurdistan Free Life Party), which operates along the Iranian border and could exploit any instability.
Fidan proposed diplomatic solutions, suggesting that Iran pursue a reset with Western powers and engage in genuine regional cooperation. He indicated that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could facilitate this recalibration of Iran’s regional relationships, emphasizing that a negotiated agreement involving key international actors would create a “win-win situation” essential for regional stability.