Gold gains on soft economic data; traders weigh US rate cut chances

Gold prices rebounded from a one-week low on Tuesday, buoyed by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, as investors speculated on the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. Spot gold increased by 0.6% to $4,068.05 per ounce, recovering from its lowest point since November 10 earlier in the day. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for December delivery dipped slightly by 0.2% to $4,068.40 per ounce. The rise in gold prices was fueled by data showing that the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits reached a two-month high in mid-October, with continued jobless claims climbing to 1.9 million for the week ending October 18. Market analysts interpreted this as a sign of economic softening, potentially prompting the Fed to lower interest rates. Tai Wong, an independent metals trader, noted that the data has slightly increased market optimism for a December rate cut, aiding gold and silver in breaking a three-day losing streak. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now perceive a 50% chance of a rate cut in December, up from 46% earlier in the day but down from 67% last week. Gold, which performs well in low-interest-rate environments, had previously declined by over 3% on Friday and 1% on Monday as investors tempered expectations for another rate cut this year. Attention now turns to the release of the Fed’s meeting minutes on Wednesday and delayed September jobs data on Thursday, both of which were postponed due to the U.S. government shutdown. Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlighted that elevated official demand for gold is likely to persist, supporting a bullish outlook and potentially driving prices above their forecasted average of $4,000 per ounce for next year. In other precious metals, spot silver rose 1% to $50.67 per ounce, platinum surged 7% to $1,544.66, and palladium fell 1.2% to $1,409.72.