A comprehensive analysis by the International Crisis Group projects that global conflict levels will remain persistently high through 2026, with diplomatic solutions proving increasingly elusive across multiple critical regions. The organization’s annual ‘Conflicts to Watch’ report identifies ten major hotspots where peacemaking efforts range from tenuous to completely ineffective, with Middle Eastern nations featuring prominently on the list.
The assessment presents a sobering evaluation of the current international security landscape, noting that traditional conflict resolution mechanisms have been substantially undermined by unconventional approaches to diplomacy. While acknowledging President Trump’s willingness to engage in unorthodox peacemaking attempts—including dialogue with leaders previously designated as terrorists—the report concludes these efforts have largely failed to mitigate global tensions and in some instances have exacerbated existing conflicts.
Evidence of this escalation includes military actions in the Caribbean that resulted in significant civilian casualties, demonstrating a departure from previously stated diplomatic intentions. The report characterizes this approach as having fundamentally transformed international crisis management, potentially normalizing military force as an acceptable tool for powerful nations to achieve political objectives.
In specific conflict analysis, the report details how initial progress toward a Gaza ceasefire was ultimately undermined, leading to substantial additional casualties before a fragile truce was eventually brokered. This arrangement, however, leaves fundamental issues unresolved and requires continuous diplomatic maintenance with uncertain prospects for success.
The situation in Yemen presents a complex web of intersecting conflicts, with Houthi forces maintaining military capabilities despite extensive Israeli airstrikes, while Gulf allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates find themselves supporting opposing factions in the ongoing civil war. Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear program remains a persistent concern with little prospect for negotiated settlement in the current climate.
Syria’s precarious stability faces multiple challenges including sectarian violence, limited political representation, persistent ISIS remnants, and the unresolved status of Kurdish-controlled territories. The report warns that without progress in negotiations, Damascus might attempt to reclaim these areas by force, potentially triggering Turkish intervention.
In Sudan, the conflict has evolved into a de facto partition between the army-controlled center and east and Rapid Support Forces-held western territories. Despite diplomatic efforts led by Trump’s Africa envoy, fighting continues with no ceasefire agreement in sight.
The report concludes that only high-level personal engagement from the U.S. president could potentially break the current deadlock in multiple conflict zones, though the prospects for such intervention remain uncertain.