The escalating U.S. immigration enforcement under President Trump’s administration has produced complex, contrasting consequences across Central America. Honduran national Elías Padilla represents one immediate effect: the deterrence of potential migrants. After meticulously saving for over a year from his meager earnings as a Tegucigalpa Uber driver—where he sometimes makes just $12 for 12 hours of work—Padilla has suspended his migration plans due to fears of detention and deportation.
Padilla’s hesitation stems from widely circulated images showing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents apprehending undocumented immigrants in major U.S. cities. “I want to improve my life conditions because we earn very little here,” explains Padilla, noting that American Uber drivers can earn in one hour what he makes in an entire day. “But I see what Trump is doing, and it’s made me think twice.”
Paradoxically, while Trump’s policies have discouraged new migration, they have simultaneously triggered a remarkable surge in remittances to Honduras. Undocumented Hondurans already residing in the United States are sending money home at unprecedented rates, creating an unexpected economic windfall for their native country. Many migrants operate under a heightened sense of urgency, attempting to transfer as much money as possible before potential apprehension.
Statistical evidence reveals a dramatic 26% increase in remittances to Honduras between January and October compared to the same period the previous year. The total amount sent home surged from $9.7 billion throughout all of 2024 to over $10.1 billion in just the first nine months of this year alone.
Marcos (pseudonym), a Honduran construction worker residing undocumented in a major U.S. city for five years, exemplifies this trend. He has substantially increased his transfers from $500 monthly to approximately $300 weekly to support his wife and two children in Tegucigalpa. “It’s like a race against time,” Marcos describes. “I just want to make sure that if I am picked up, there’ll be a little money set aside down there.”
The immigration crackdown has also significantly impacted human smuggling operations. Jimmy (pseudonym), a former coyote who transported migrants through Mexico for two decades, reveals that smuggling costs have dramatically escalated from $12,000-13,000 to $25,000-30,000 per person due to increased enforcement measures. While Jimmy insists that approximately 40% of migrants still successfully complete the journey, the prohibitive costs have placed the option beyond reach for many potential migrants like Padilla.
Despite the current deterrent effect, Padilla maintains that economic pressures will ultimately prevail over immigration enforcement. “Trump has only postponed my plans,” he asserts. “Not cancelled them.” This sentiment reflects the broader reality that while policies may temporarily alter migration patterns, the fundamental economic disparities driving migration from Central America remain unresolved.