HAVANA — In a solemn predawn ceremony, Cuban officials lowered national flags to honor 32 security officers reportedly killed during what authorities describe as a U.S.-led offensive in Venezuela. The incident has triggered profound anxiety across the island nation, raising urgent questions about Cuba’s political and economic future following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Havana’s closest regional ally.
The strategic partnership between Cuba and Venezuela represents one of Latin America’s most deeply intertwined relationships. Cuban military and security personnel have historically provided protection for the Venezuelan leadership, while Caracas’s petroleum exports have sustained Cuba’s struggling economy through years of financial hardship. Cuban authorities confirmed the casualties from what they termed a ‘surprise attack’ but declined to provide specific operational details.
The Trump administration has explicitly framed the Venezuela intervention as a direct blow to Cuba’s government, highlighting how the severance of Venezuelan support could produce devastating consequences for Havana’s leadership. On Saturday, Cuban officials appealed for international condemnation of what they characterized as ‘state terrorism.’
President Trump subsequently emphasized that Cuba’s already fragile economy would face further deterioration following Maduro’s ouster, bluntly stating that the island nation was ‘going down for the count.’
Geopolitical analysts note the extraordinary influence exerted by Cuba—with approximately 10 million citizens—over oil-rich Venezuela, which possesses triple the population. This relationship has provided crucial stability despite Cuba’s chronic domestic challenges, including widespread blackouts and severe shortages of basic commodities. The recent escalation has introduced the previously unthinkable prospect of even grimmer conditions ahead.
Emotional responses from Cuban citizens reflected the gravity of the situation. ‘I can’t talk. I have no words,’ expressed 75-year-old Berta Luz Sierra Molina through tears. Another resident, 63-year-old Regina Mendez, declared readiness to take up arms despite being beyond military age, stating, ‘Give me a rifle, and I’ll go fight.’
Energy experts quantify the potential crisis: Venezuela has supplied Cuba with approximately 35,000 barrels of oil daily over recent months, covering about a quarter of the island’s total demand. Jorge Piñón of the University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute identified the critical unanswered question: ‘Is the U.S. going to allow Venezuela to continue supplying Cuba with oil?’
Piñón referenced Mexico’s reduced oil shipments to Cuba—from 22,000 to 7,000 barrels daily—following U.S. diplomatic pressure, suggesting similar constraints could apply to Venezuelan supplies. Ricardo Torres, an economist at American University, warned that current significant blackouts occur despite ongoing Venezuelan support, predicting ‘catastrophe’ if these shipments are interrupted.
Reporting contributions came from San Juan, Puerto Rico; Havana; and Buenos Aires.