China’s trade dynamics in September presented a mixed picture, with global exports surging to a six-month high while exports to the United States continued their downward spiral. According to customs data released on Monday, China’s worldwide exports rose by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching $328.5 billion, significantly exceeding economists’ expectations and marking a notable improvement from August’s 4.4% growth. However, exports to the U.S. plummeted by 27% compared to the previous year, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline and following a 33% drop in August. Imports also showed improvement, growing by 7.4% in September, up from a modest 1.3% increase in August, though domestic economic challenges and a struggling real estate sector continue to dampen demand. The ongoing trade tensions between Beijing and Washington have cast a shadow over the outlook, with both sides imposing new tariffs and retaliatory measures. U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies aimed at reshoring manufacturing have pressured Chinese exports to the U.S., prompting China to diversify its markets. Shipments to Southeast Asia grew by 15.6%, while exports to Latin America and Africa surged by 15% and 56%, respectively. Despite these efforts, the external environment remains fraught with uncertainty, as highlighted by Wang Jun, vice minister of China’s customs agency, who emphasized the need for sustained efforts to stabilize trade in the fourth quarter. Analysts like Gary Ng of Natixis point to the resilience of China’s exports due to low costs and limited global alternatives but warn that escalating export controls could have a more prolonged impact on supply chains. Recent developments, including Trump’s threats of additional tariffs and export controls on critical software, coupled with China’s retaliatory measures such as new port fees and extended export controls on lithium-ion batteries and rare earths, have further strained relations. These tensions could jeopardize a planned meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in late October and underscore the lack of progress in reaching a comprehensive trade agreement.
China’s exports to US drop in September, while rise in global shipments hits a 6-month high
