China has announced its most conservative annual economic growth target in over three decades, setting a range of 4.5% to 5% for the coming year during the ongoing Two Sessions political gathering. This marks the lowest expansion goal since 1991 and represents the first downward adjustment since the “around 5%” target established in 2023.
The revised growth framework emerges as Beijing confronts multiple economic headwinds, including persistently weak domestic consumption, an unresolved property sector crisis, and escalating trade tensions with Western nations. The announcement coincided with preliminary details of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, which outlines strategic investments in innovation, high-tech industries, and scientific research.
Premier Li Qiang addressed delegates emphasizing the government’s dual focus: stimulating household consumption while advancing manufacturing sophistication. This approach reflects concerns about over-reliance on export-driven growth despite China recording a record $1.19 trillion trade surplus in the previous year.
Recent economic data reveals the complexity of China’s situation. While officially meeting the 5% growth target for 2025 overall, expansion slowed to 4.5% in the final quarter, consistent with the new target’s lower bound. This slowdown has prompted more than two-thirds of Chinese provinces to similarly temper their growth expectations.
Georgetown University researcher Ning Leng notes that China’s export dependency creates vulnerability, particularly as former President Donald Trump’s tariff policies continue to pressure trade relations. In response, China has aggressively pursued trade diversification strategies to maintain manufacturing output and market access.