In the wake of the United States’ military operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on January 3, China has initiated a comprehensive reassessment of its overseas investment strategy. The Chinese government has been conducting urgent evaluations of potential economic losses and strategic implications stemming from the political upheaval in the Latin American nation.
Multiple sources within China’s policy circles indicate that Beijing has concluded its initial assessment, with officials and commentators publicly expressing concerns about overexposure in Venezuela. The consensus reveals a recognition that China placed excessive confidence in international law protections and underestimated the Trump administration’s determination to assert dominance in the Western Hemisphere.
Financial exposure remains a immediate concern, with Venezuela owing China between $10-20 billion, primarily repaid through crude oil shipments. Short-term strategy focuses on maintaining oil flows, while medium to long-term approaches may involve asset sales to Western firms or establishing partnerships to mitigate losses. This recalibration comes as President Trump announced Venezuela’s interim authorities would transfer 30-50 million barrels of oil worth approximately $2.75 billion to the United States.
Einar Tangen, senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation, notes that China’s total investments in Venezuela exceed $60 billion across various sectors including energy and infrastructure. Despite the political crisis, Tangen observes that Maduro’s government structure remains nominally intact, with the primary current challenge being the naval blockade preventing shipments.
The Ministry of Commerce reaffirmed China’s commitment to economic cooperation with Venezuela, emphasizing that bilateral agreements operate under international law and should not be subject to third-party interference. Officials condemned US actions as violations of international law and Venezuelan sovereignty while emphasizing that China’s Latin American engagements follow principles of mutual benefit rather than sphere-of-influence building.
Analysts suggest that while China may experience tactical setbacks in its Belt and Road Initiative, the strategic outcome could ultimately benefit Beijing by validating its warnings about US unilateralism. The incident has sparked serious discussions within Chinese policy circles about enhancing legal protections, diplomatic responses, and even military capabilities to safeguard overseas investments in an increasingly volatile global landscape.