Foreign policy experts are raising alarms that President Donald Trump’s recent pattern of rapid military engagements is creating a dangerous precedent as his administration contemplates potential strikes against Iranian targets. This emerging ‘in-and-out’ intervention model, demonstrated in operations like the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, provides tactical successes with minimal political cost, effectively emboldening further military adventurism according to defense analysts.
The Stimson Centre’s Will Smith notes that swift tactical victories without significant domestic opposition have left Trump ’emboldened and confident’ in this approach. Recent reports indicate the administration is weighing strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij paramilitary sites, while Qatar confirmed partial US personnel withdrawals from al-Udeid air base—a facility previously struck by Iran following US attacks on nuclear facilities.
Defense expert Andrew Curtis expressed concern that successful interventions spark thoughts of ‘what else can I do with this toy,’ creating potential momentum for additional conflicts. However, Trump appeared to moderate intervention rhetoric recently, stating protest-related killings had ceased and his administration would monitor Iran’s internal processes before deciding on military action.
Royal United Services Institute director Neil Melvin characterizes this as a ‘low-cost model of regime change’ that represents a significant shift in US foreign policy. Unlike traditional nation-building approaches requiring substantial troop commitments and financial assistance, the current strategy employs proxy forces and limited military engagement to achieve political objectives without extensive entanglement.
Regional power dynamics further complicate the situation. While Russia abandoned Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad due to Ukrainian commitments, and China remains focused on Taiwan with limited appetite for Middle Eastern adventurism, Iran presents a more formidable challenge than Venezuela. Years of US sanctions have crippled Iran’s economy and sparked widespread protests, with some reports indicating armed opposition groups receiving Israeli support.
The practical limitations of simultaneous operations present additional constraints. Curtis notes that while no practical military constraints exist, the US lacks capacity for concurrent planning of major operations against multiple targets, meaning any actions against Iran would need to occur sequentially rather than parallel to other engagements.
Potential Iranian strikes would likely focus on ballistic missile capabilities to prevent retaliation against US bases, building on previous successful operations including undetected B-2 bomber flights from Missouri and submarine-launched cruise missile attacks from waters south of Iran.
