It began as a lighthearted joke from a Finnish leader that laid bare a rapidly shifting geopolitical reality: over the summer, Finnish President Alexander Stubb asked, “Wouldn’t it be lovely if Canada was the 28th state of the European Union rather than the 51st state of the United States?”
The quip was not pulled from thin air. For months, US President Donald Trump, who is currently locked in an escalating tariff conflict with the Canadian government, has repeatedly floated his outlandish ambition to annex Canada as America’s 51st state – a proposal that has stoked widespread anger and offense across Canada. As fellow Arctic nations, Finland and Canada share longstanding close ties, and behind Stubb’s teasing tone was a clear observation of the dramatically deepening relationship between Ottawa and Brussels. These days, it is not uncommon to hear Brussels insiders joke that “Canada is more Europe-minded than most Europeans.”
This week, that warming relationship moves into the spotlight: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is in Strasbourg this week as a guest of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, marking the highest-profile step yet in Canada’s push for closer EU alignment. Just days after US-Canada trade negotiations collapsed late last month, and following a provocative new Trump post on Truth Social that overlaid the US flag across a map of North America including Canada and Denmark-controlled Greenland, Carney publicly announced Canada is seeking a “unique alliance” with the European bloc.
The catalyst for this sudden public push for deeper ties is unmistakable: Donald Trump’s second term trade aggression. While the European Commission opted not to retaliate against new sweeping US tariffs imposed on European goods, Carney has taken a far bolder stance, rapidly implementing matching counter-tariffs on US imports in defense of Canadian economic sovereignty. This defiance has won quiet praise across European capitals, which have also been hit hard by Trump’s protectionist trade policies.
To many European observers, Canada’s enthusiasm for closer EU ties outpaces even that of the United Kingdom, another non-member that has long sought a close post-Brexit relationship with the bloc. “Canada right now seems more interested than the UK to get as close to Brussels as possible, as a non member state,” noted Mark Lowen, director of the European Council of Foreign Relations think tank. “It’s remarkable.”
That gap has already translated into concrete results. Earlier this year, Canada became a participating member of the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) defense fund, an opportunity the UK was unable to secure amid ongoing disputes over funding and lingering post-Brexit political tensions. A planned summit to reset EU-UK relations has been delayed once again over cross-Channel policy disagreements, while Carney will not only attend von der Leyen’s annual State of the Union address on Wednesday, but will also deliver his own address to the European Parliament on Thursday. The two leaders are expected to formally unveil plans to deepen cooperation, framed as the closest possible relationship short of full Canadian membership in the bloc. Behind closed doors, Brussels officials have already begun discussing a new “special association agreement” that would expand cooperation across multiple priority sectors.
For both sides, the core goal of this new alliance is to reduce strategic and economic reliance on Washington. Key areas of planned collaboration include digital and technological development, where global markets are currently dominated by the US and China; energy security, as Canada holds vast reserves of liquefied natural gas (LNG) that the EU urgently needs after cutting dependency on Russian fossil fuels; and critical raw minerals, where Canada is one of the world’s most resource-rich nations. On defense procurement, Canada has already shifted toward European suppliers, recently purchasing German attack submarines and Saab airborne early-warning aircraft from Sweden – a deliberate choice in response to Trump’s tariffs, which have reached as high as 50% on some Canadian exports.
Public opinion in Canada strongly supports this shift. An April Nanos opinion poll found that more than 80% of Canadians back strengthening ties with the EU, and nearly 60% support full Canadian membership of the bloc – a prospect that is currently blocked under EU treaty rules, which limit membership to geographically European states.
Canada-EU trade ties are already well established: the EU is Canada’s second-largest trading partner, far behind the US, which absorbs roughly 70% of all Canadian exports. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), a landmark free trade deal between the two sides, was reached nearly a decade ago and has already eliminated 99% of tariffs on Canadian goods exports to the EU. European officials openly acknowledge that the current push for deeper alignment is a direct response to the “Trump effect” – the growing perception on both sides that Washington can no longer be fully relied on as a stable ally, after decades of close partnership.
“The Canadian government is committed to trade diversification, doubling non-US trades in the next 10 years, and doing more with the European Union will be very key to achieving that target,” explained Mark Camilleri, president of the Canada EU Trade and Investment Association (CEUTIA), in comments to the BBC.
A closer Canada-EU alliance fits into a broader global trend of middle-sized powers pursuing new multilateral partnerships to counter superpower coercion. Earlier this year, Canada’s sectoral trade agreement with China drew widespread international attention, and the new push for EU alignment aligns with that broader strategy of economic diversification.
Still, analysts warn that full decoupling from the United States is economically unrealistic for both sides. Combined goods and services trade makes the US the EU’s largest overall trading partner, while Canada and the US share the world’s largest bilateral trading relationship, worth nearly $900 billion in 2025 – a figure that dwarfs the $130 billion in annual EU-Canada trade. Replacing the integrated cross-border supply chains and massive American consumer market that Canada has relied on for decades would be a monumental, nearly impossible task.
Despite this, Carney and von der Leyen are expected to use this week’s events to reaffirm their shared commitment to a global rules-based trading system, with or without US cooperation. Following this week’s Strasbourg events, an official EU-Canada summit is scheduled for late October, after which working groups will begin the technical work of drafting new agreements across priority sectors.
The turning point in Europe’s attitude toward Washington came earlier this year, when Trump refused to rule out seizing Greenland, an autonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark, by force. Around the same time, Carney – a former Governor of the Bank of England – delivered a landmark speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, calling on middle-sized powers to unite against economic coercion from global superpowers, a address that captured the full attention of European leaders.
When it comes to public support for Carney’s standoff against Trump, however, most European leaders have opted for cautious silence, even as they hold private talks about deeper cooperation. The reason is straightforward: nearly all major EU member states are holding critical national elections in the coming months, and no leader wants to risk provoking Trump, who could respond with new punitive tariffs that would damage their domestic economies, costing them support at the polls. Instead, European leaders have delegated public engagement to EU institutions, which invited Carney to Strasbourg under the commission’s trade mandate.
Even within the EU, there are remaining hurdles to a sweeping new deal with Canada. Some member states, most notably France, have pushed back against granting overly favorable access to the EU single market for a non-member country, even as other leaders argue for greater flexibility to accommodate like-minded allies in an increasingly unstable geopolitical climate. This is the same challenge that has stalled the UK’s efforts to deepen post-Brexit ties with the bloc.
After wrapping up his trip to Strasbourg, Carney will travel to Liverpool for his first face-to-face meeting with new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham. While the official agenda will focus on UK-Canada bilateral ties, observers have noted that the two leaders may well end up discussing shared strategies for building closer ties with Brussels.