Australia employment unexpectedly falls in August, jobless rate steady

Australia’s labor market displayed unexpected weakness in August, with employment declining by 5,400 jobs, starkly contrasting the anticipated gain of 21,500. The jobless rate remained steady at 4.2%, a figure still considered low by historical standards, while annual jobs growth slowed to 1.5% from 3.5% at the start of 2025. The Australian dollar dipped slightly by 0.2% to $0.6637, and three-year bond futures rose by 3 ticks to 96.6, reflecting market reactions to the mixed economic signals. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain its current interest rate stance this month, with a potential rate cut in November being 75% priced in by investors. The RBA has adopted a cautious approach to policy easing, having already implemented cuts in February, May, and August, as inflation returned to the target band of 2-3%. Despite the recent dip, leading indicators of labor demand remain robust, with job ads stabilizing above pre-pandemic levels and business surveys reflecting optimism. However, major banks like ANZ and National Australia Bank have announced significant job cuts, signaling potential challenges ahead for the labor market.