LONDON — While UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s name does not appear on Thursday’s special by-election ballot in the northwest English constituency of Makerfield, his political future hangs entirely on its outcome.
Around 75,000 eligible voters across Makerfield’s network of post-industrial towns and rural villages, located 200 miles northwest of London, are heading to the polls to fill a vacant parliamentary seat left open by the resignation of sitting Labour MP Josh Simons. The frontrunner in the race is Andy Burnham, the popular Greater Manchester Mayor, long-time Labour figure and bookmakers’ pick to be the UK’s next prime minister. Should Burnham secure victory against his main challenger from the right-wing, anti-immigration party Reform UK, political observers almost universally agree he will launch a challenge to Starmer’s leadership of the governing Labour Party — and his position as prime minister.
This is no ordinary by-election. Scores of international journalists have descended on the constituency over the course of the campaign, a reflection of the extraordinary national stakes tied to the result, which is expected to be announced early Friday. Burnham has already positioned himself as a candidate for change, telling voters: “If people put their trust in me, I will change politics.” The pledge is striking for a candidate who would, at least initially, be just one of 650 members of the House of Commons — but it resonates deeply with growing discontent inside the Labour Party over Starmer’s turbulent tenure.
Just months after Starmer led Labour to a landslide general election victory in July 2024, his approval ratings have collapsed dramatically. His administration has failed to deliver on key campaign pledges: promised economic growth remains elusive, overstretched public services have yet to see meaningful repair, and the cost of living crisis continues to squeeze household budgets across the UK. Repeated high-profile missteps have further eroded his standing, most notably the decision to appoint scandal-tarnished figure Peter Mandelson — a known associate of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein — as UK ambassador to the United States.
A dismal showing for Labour in May 2025 local elections already triggered open calls for Starmer’s resignation from dozens of his own party’s lawmakers. Though Starmer has refused to step down, senior party figures have begun openly organizing to oust him. Earlier this year, popular senior Labour figure Wes Streeting resigned from his post as Health Secretary, declaring publicly that “where we need vision, we have a vacuum.” Streeting confirmed this week that he hopes Starmer will agree to resign voluntarily, but added that if he refuses, “there will need to be a contest, and I would be prepared to do that.”
Simons’ resignation was deliberately timed to clear a path for Burnham, a long-serving politician nicknamed the “King of the North” who has led Greater Manchester since 2017, to return to Parliament and position himself for a leadership challenge. Under the UK’s parliamentary system, governing parties can replace their leader and prime minister mid-term without holding a full national general election. Under Labour Party rules, any sitting MP can launch a leadership challenge if they secure the backing of 20% of the party’s parliamentary caucus — a threshold of 81 supporters that observers believe Burnham would easily meet if he wins Makerfield.
During his time in office leading Greater Manchester, Burnham has overseen widespread urban regeneration in the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, building a broad public following through a populist, region-focused brand of governance. He has pledged to bring his signature “Manchesterism” approach to national politics, arguing that the UK’s long-standing “London-centric politics” has failed regions outside the capital. “It’s not right, the way the country has been run,” he told supporters on the campaign trail last week.
For his part, Starmer has attempted to project calm, telling reporters on the sidelines of this week’s G7 summit in France that he has no intention of leaving 10 Downing Street. “I will fight if there’s a challenge,” he said. “We won a significant general election result in 2024, with a mandate to bring about change. I’m not going to walk away from that.” Starmer even attempted to neutralize the threat earlier this week, telling Sky News that he would be open to giving Burnham a senior Cabinet post if he won the by-election. But allies close to Burnham have made clear he has no interest in a junior role in Starmer’s government.
University of Manchester political science professor Rob Ford noted that a convincing Burnham win would create unstoppable pressure on Starmer to resign. “Starmer can say all that he likes that he wants to carry on,” Ford said. “But if the entire Cabinet turns around and says, ‘We’re not going to serve under you and we think you should go,’ then either he’ll go with dignity or go without dignity, but he’ll end up having to go quite quickly.”
While Burnham is the clear favorite, his victory is far from guaranteed. Makerfield has returned Labour MPs for more than a century, but Reform UK has made rapid inroads in post-industrial northern England in recent months, scoring major gains in May’s local elections. Reform’s candidate, local plumber Rob Kenyon, is centered his campaign on tapping into widespread voter anxiety over immigration — an issue that resonates with many local residents even though Makerfield has a relatively small immigrant population. Reform also faces a challenge from the far-right, even more hard-line anti-immigration party Restore, which could split the right-wing vote.
Ford warned that a victory for Reform UK would be a catastrophic outcome for Labour, describing it as “Gotterdammerung, apocalypse, disaster, chaos.” Burnham, he noted, is far more popular and widely known than any other potential Labour leadership contender. “Andy Burnham is miles more popular than every other (leadership) candidate available. Miles better known, miles better liked,” Ford said. “If Reform take him out, then simultaneously you have a situation where the Reform threat looks much graver, and the best person available to combat the Reform threat has failed.”