India’s sugar exports are projected to drop below 800,000 metric tons this season, significantly missing the government’s 1 million-ton quota. This decline is attributed to increased supplies from Brazil, which have driven global sugar prices to their lowest levels in over four years, making Indian shipments less competitive. Trade and government officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, revealed that mills have so far contracted to export around 750,000 tons, with approximately 720,000 tons already shipped. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, exports are unlikely to exceed 775,000 tons by the end of the season on September 30, 2025. The slowdown in exports has been exacerbated by Brazilian sugar trading at more than $25 cheaper than Indian supplies, coupled with rising domestic prices in India. Traditionally, Indian sugar has held a competitive edge in Asia due to lower freight costs, but recent market dynamics have shifted the balance. With only a handful of export deals in recent weeks, mills may request the government to allow the export of the remaining 200,000-plus tons in the new season starting October 1. Despite the current challenges, India’s sugar output is expected to rise in the upcoming season, thanks to favorable monsoon rains, potentially improving export prospects. India, the world’s largest sugar producer and consumer, has been a key exporter to countries such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and the United Arab Emirates, averaging 6.8 million tons annually over the past five years.