Eight months after former U.S. President Donald Trump launched an unauthorized military conflict with Iran, new economic analysis has laid bare the steep financial toll the standoff has imposed on American consumers and global energy markets. The conflict, which began in February without formal approval from the U.S. Congress, triggered a cascading series of disruptions that have sent energy costs soaring worldwide: Iran responded to U.S. military strikes by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply passes.
Independent analysis from Moody’s Analytics quantifies the cumulative burden on American families, estimating that the average U.S. household has paid $1,760 in extra expenses since the conflict began. Of that total, more than half — $121 billion nationwide, equal to $930 per household — comes directly from inflated energy costs. The remaining costs break down into two additional categories: $425 per household from higher interest rates driven by inflationary pressure from energy prices, and $405 per household from expanded military spending, which will ultimately be paid by taxpayers either through growing national debt or future tax increases, according to Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi.
In an interview with CNBC published this week, Zandi emphasized that the numbers underscore the intense financial strain already weighing on U.S. consumers. “Consumers are under a lot of financial pressure,” Zandi told the network.
The outlook for near-term relief remains grim, according to geoeconomics experts, as escalating regional tensions across the Middle East continue to threaten energy infrastructure. Karthik Sankaran, a senior geoeconomics research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, noted that ongoing developments — including Houthi forces capturing a key Red Sea port city and a recent drone strike on a Saudi oil pipeline — have left the global energy system far more vulnerable to shocks than it was at the conflict’s outset.
Sankaran explained that global buffers that normally soften the blow of energy disruptions have already been exhausted. Global seaborne oil storage held in tankers has been largely depleted, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has already released roughly 130 million barrels to cool prices, and China, the world’s top oil importer, has ramped up its imports to 7.2 million barrels per day, up from a June low of 6 million barrels, leaving little spare supply to absorb new disruptions.
While American consumers face significant discomfort from elevated prices, the situation is far more severe for low- and middle-income nations across the Global South, Sankaran added. Spikes in diesel prices, in particular, hit these economies disproportionately: diesel powers the trucks, buses, and agricultural equipment that underpin local supply chains, and it is far more critical to daily function in these regions than gasoline, which is largely tied to personal vehicle ownership that remains rare in lower-income countries.
The sustained rise in global fuel prices has already sparked widespread public unrest across six continents, a CNN investigation confirmed this week. Protests over soaring fuel costs have erupted in nations including Syria, Guatemala, France, Portugal, and the Philippines. In Syria, where economic instability has compounded over a decade of civil conflict, demonstrations have been particularly fierce. Sunday protesters blocked the major Hasaka–Deir ez-Zor highway, burning tires and halting oil tanker traffic to voice their anger. Muaz Al Abdullah, a Syria analyst with global conflict monitor Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), told CNN that mounting public anger over fuel access, rising prices, plummeting purchasing power, and failing public services has reached a breaking point, with protesters now calling for the dismissal of the country’s energy minister.