Initial exit poll projections have delivered a seismic political shift to the heart of eastern Germany, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) poised to claim a commanding lead in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, outstripping all long-dominant mainstream parties by a substantial margin.
According to the early projections, the AfD is on course to capture more than 44% of the popular vote, a result that puts it nearly 26 percentage points ahead of its nearest competitor, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which is projected to finish with just 18.4% of the vote. While the final seat count and the possibility of an AfD majority remain unresolved pending full official results, the party’s leadership has already declared it has earned a clear mandate to lead the state.
The projected outcome marks an unprecedented moment for post-World War II German politics: no far-right party has ever won control of a regional German state since 1945. A governing majority in Saxony-Anhalt would grant the AfD critical regional authority over key policy areas including policing, K-12 education, and cultural policy, giving the party tangible governing power for the first time at the state level.
Home to roughly 2.1 million residents, Saxony-Anhalt’s regional AfD branch is officially classified as a far-right extremist organization by Germany’s domestic intelligence service — a label the party’s charismatic state leader Ulrich Siegmund has repeatedly rejected. Siegmund has already drawn a hard line on coalition negotiations, confirming he will refuse to enter any governing alliance with other established parties.
The projected performance exceeded even the most recent pre-election polling estimates, and reaction from the party’s top ranks was immediate. Siegmund joined AfD’s national co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla in celebrating the projected result, with all three expressing unbridled elation at the early numbers. When the exit poll projections flashed on screens at the AfD’s election night headquarters in Magdeburg, hundreds of gathered supporters erupted into cheers, before breaking into song with Germany’s national anthem.
Speaking to the crowd, Siegmund framed the outcome as a watershed moment for the party and the region. “We have made history in this state,” he said.
For mainstream parties, the projected result has sparked deep concern. CDU lead candidate Sven Schulze quickly conceded defeat, acknowledging the scale of the upset. “This was an extremely tough and intensive election campaign,” Schulze said, adding that his party would now have to reckon with the unexpected outcome. Lars Klingbeil, national leader of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) — the junior partner in Germany’s current national governing coalition alongside the CDU — described the result as “truly dramatic” and called it a clear “signal to Berlin” that national politicians must address the growing discontent that fueled the AfD’s rise.
Voter turnout hit an unusually high 78% in the election, a figure that political analysts attribute in part to high enthusiasm among AfD supporters. Many of those voters told reporters the party has filled a gap that established parties have left open. “This man gives us what no one else can give,” Magdeburg resident Ollie told the BBC of Siegmund. “No matter what government, they all just promise things to get better. This is a party for the working people. It is the alternative for Germany.”
The final fate of an AfD majority hinges on whether one or more small regional parties manage to clear the 5% vote threshold required to gain seats in the state parliament. If a small party falls just short of the threshold, any seats it would have earned are reallocated across the rest of the parliament, increasing the AfD’s chances of securing an outright governing majority. Full official results are expected in the coming hours, which will resolve the question of whether the AfD can make good on its bid to make history as the first post-WWII far-right party to lead a German state.