After months of indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan, the United States and Iran have moved to the brink of signing a landmark memorandum of understanding (MOU) that could reshape geopolitics across the Middle East, though stark public disagreements over the agreement’s core terms have cast uncertainty over its final shape.
On Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi offered the clearest confirmation yet that a final deal is imminent, writing on social media that the so-called Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding is closer than ever. He urged media outlets to avoid unfounded speculation ahead of the text’s formal finalization. US President Donald Trump quickly shared Araghchi’s statement, but hours later launched a scathing rebuke of Iranian claims about the MOU’s content.
The dispute broke into public view after Iran’s Mehr News Agency reported the draft agreement would unlock $24 billion in Iranian assets frozen by international sanctions, codify Iran’s long-held control over the Strait of Hormuz, and include a full ceasefire across regional hotspots including Lebanon. A senior Iranian source later confirmed that account to Reuters, adding the deal would also lift restrictions on Iranian oil exports and require an end to hostilities on all regional fronts. Multiple Iranian officials have long maintained that any ceasefire agreement must include an end to Israel’s ongoing military campaign in southern Lebanon, where Israeli forces have expanded ground operations in recent weeks.
The Trump administration has pushed back forcefully against Iran’s version of events. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump dismissed Iranian leaks of the deal’s terms as entirely disconnected from the written agreement under negotiation. “Very dishonorable people to deal with,” he wrote. “They better get their act together, and FAST!”
A senior anonymous Trump administration official outlined a far different set of agreed terms to reporters, saying Tehran has committed to five core pillars, including the destruction and permanent removal of all its enriched nuclear material from Iranian territory. The official confirmed that some Iranian assets are tied to the agreement, but stressed no funds will be released until Tehran fully meets all its performance-based obligations. The administration’s version also states the MOU will require the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global energy chokepoint through which 25% of the world’s oil supplies pass—to be kept open to all international shipping, and bars Iran from providing military funding to regional proxies including Lebanon’s Hezbollah. US Vice President JD Vance echoed that pushback in a post on X, emphasizing that no Iranian funds will be released immediately upon signing the MOU, calling widespread reports to the contrary “fake information.”
Despite the conflicting public narratives from the two negotiating parties, Pakistan—the key third-party mediator facilitating the indirect talks—has confirmed that both sides have reached a final agreed text. “We can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached,” Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote on X Friday. “Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps. Peace has never been this close as it is now.”
International markets reacted swiftly to the news of progress: global oil prices dropped sharply, while equity markets surged, as investors priced in the possibility of a broader breakthrough that could ease geopolitical tensions and open up new Iranian oil supplies to global markets. The possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough also gained further cred Friday when Switzerland’s foreign ministry confirmed it had been in contact with both parties and offered to host the signing ceremony if both sides agree to the venue.
Senior US officials have struck a cautiously optimistic tone, saying a formal signing could come as early as the next several days, with Trump floating the possibility of a ceremony in Europe. One senior US official told reporters on a background call that the likelihood of a final agreement had climbed throughout the day, from an estimated 75% that morning to between 80% and 85% by Friday afternoon, stopping short of declaring a done deal. It is not the first time Trump has announced a near-completed agreement with Iran; past announcements of impending deals have ultimately collapsed before reaching a final signing.