Nearly three months after the United States and Israel launched large-scale military strikes on Iran that opened a full-scale conflict reshaping the Middle East, Washington is pinning its latest hopes on Pakistani mediation to break a months-long negotiation deadlock and reach a lasting peace agreement.
The conflict, which began on February 28, triggered widespread regional instability, sent global energy and commodity prices soaring, and pushed the international economy to the edge of new turmoil. A ceasefire agreed on April 8 paused large-scale open fighting, but repeated rounds of talks have failed to produce a permanent deal that can fully end the crisis. On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that Washington expected new diplomatic momentum from Pakistani mediators, who were set to travel to Tehran the same day to advance talks.
Pakistan has already emerged as a key third-party broker in the conflict, hosting the only direct face-to-face negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials last month that were facilitated by Pakistan’s powerful Army Chief Asim Munir. Those high-stakes talks ultimately collapsed after Iran rejected what it called Washington’s “excessive demands.” In a sign of continued diplomatic push, Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi — a figure widely seen as close to Munir — made his second visit to Tehran in as many weeks on Wednesday. Iranian state media has cited anonymous sources suggesting Munir could travel to the Iranian capital as soon as Thursday, though Pakistani officials have so far offered no confirmation of the army chief’s travel plans.
Beyond Pakistan’s mediation, China — another actor that has participated in regional efforts to end the war — announced Saturday that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will visit Beijing for discussions linked to the diplomatic process.
The current standoff remains razor-thin, with U.S. President Donald Trump confirming Wednesday that negotiations are balanced on a “borderline” between a final deal and a resumption of full-scale attacks. “If we don’t get the right answers, it goes very quickly. We’re all ready to go,” Trump told reporters, adding that a deal could be reached “very quickly” or within days, but insisted Iran must provide “100 percent good answers” to U.S. demands to avoid renewed hostilities.
Trump’s fresh pressure on Iran comes as the president faces growing domestic political pressure to resolve the conflict, as U.S. consumers face soaring energy costs tied to the ongoing regional disruption. Rubio also publicly criticized U.S. NATO allies this week for declining to back the U.S.-led campaign against Iran, saying “We were very upset about that” after allies refused to take even non-military action in support of the effort.
For its part, Iran has remained firm in its own demands and warned it will respond aggressively if hostilities resume. Iranian chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Wednesday that “The enemy’s movements, both overt and clandestine, show that despite economic and political pressure, it has not abandoned its military objectives and is seeking to start a new war,” adding that Iran would launch a “forceful response” to any new attack. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed Tehran is still reviewing latest proposals from Washington, but repeated Iran’s core demands: the full release of billions of dollars in Iranian assets frozen abroad and an end to the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian territory.
The most critical unresolved sticking point remains the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic global waterway that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, and one-third of global fertilizer shipments. While the April ceasefire paused open fighting, it did not reopen the strait, which Iran closed as a retaliatory measure after the war began. Only a tiny volume of shipping has been allowed through in recent weeks under a new Iranian toll system, and Iran’s new regulatory body for the strait has claimed territorial control extending into Emirati waters — a move that drew an immediate sharp rebuke from Abu Dhabi. Tensions between Iran and the United Arab Emirates have remained severely strained since the war began, after Iran launched missile and drone strikes on Gulf states in retaliation for the U.S.-Israeli offensive.
As global pre-war oil stockpiles continue to deplete, fears are growing that the prolonged closure will trigger further increases in energy and food prices, worsening existing strains on the world economy. In addition to the core Iran-U.S. standoff, conflict continues to simmer on a second front in Lebanon. Lebanese state media reported Thursday that an Israeli strike damaged a hospital in southern Lebanon, where Israeli forces have continued to carry out operations, demolitions and evacuation orders even after an April 17 truce. Israel says its strikes target Hezbollah, which has continued to launch its own attacks on Israeli territory in turn.
Hezbollah entered the war after the killing of Iran’s supreme leader in U.S.-Israeli strikes, launching retaliatory rocket fire that dragged Lebanon into the broader regional conflict. Lebanon’s health ministry says Israeli attacks have killed at least 3,089 people in the country since March 2. On Thursday, the U.S. announced new sanctions targeting nine individuals with alleged links to Hezbollah, accusing them of “obstructing the peace process in Lebanon.”