Tensions between Iran and the United States have spiked sharply in recent days, with a senior Iranian military commander warning that a resumption of open hostilities between the two nations is increasingly likely, just hours after former President Donald Trump publicly rejected Tehran’s latest peace proposal as unsatisfactory. The current ceasefire, which has paused the full-scale war launched jointly by the U.S. and Israel in late February 2026, has held since April 8, following one unsuccessful round of negotiation mediated by Pakistan earlier this spring.
Iran submitted its updated negotiating draft to Pakistani mediators on Thursday evening, according to Iranian state media, though no specifics about the draft’s content have been released to the public. Speaking to reporters on Saturday, Trump reiterated his disappointment with Iran’s offer, blaming the stalled talks on deep internal divisions within Iran’s top leadership. “Do we want to go and just blast the hell out of them and finish them forever — or do we want to try and make a deal?” Trump asked reporters, adding that he would “prefer not” to launch a full-scale offensive “on a human basis”.
Early Saturday, Mohammad Jafar Asadi, a high-ranking official in Iran’s central military command, echoed the rising pessimism in comments published by Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency. Asadi stated plainly that “a renewed conflict between Iran and the United States is likely”, adding that “evidence has shown that the United States is not committed to any promises or agreements”.
A day earlier, Iran’s judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei pushed back against U.S. framing of the stalled talks, noting that Iran had “never shied away from negotiations” but would never accept externally imposed peace terms. While the White House has refused to release details of Iran’s latest proposal, U.S. news outlet Axios has reported that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has submitted amendments to an earlier draft that would place Iran’s nuclear program back on the negotiating table. Key U.S. demands include restrictions barring Iran from moving enriched uranium out of bombed nuclear sites or resuming enrichment activity at those locations while negotiations continue.
The geopolitical standoff has already sent ripples through global energy markets: news of Iran’s proposal briefly pushed international oil prices down by nearly 5 percent, though prices remain roughly 50 percent higher than pre-war levels, due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Since the war began, Iran has maintained a tight blockade on the strait, cutting off global supplies of oil, natural gas, and fertilizer, while the U.S. has implemented a reciprocal blockade on all Iranian commercial ports. Speaking at a campaign rally Friday, Trump made unorthodox comments comparing U.S. naval operations in the region to piracy, while describing a recent helicopter raid on an oil tanker operating under the blockade.
Even with the ceasefire in place in the Gulf, violence continues to escalate in Lebanon, where Israeli forces have carried out repeated deadly airstrikes despite a separate ceasefire agreement with Iran-backed Hezbollah. Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health confirmed Friday that 13 people were killed in Israeli strikes across southern Lebanon, including multiple fatalities in the town of Habboush, where the Israeli military had ordered civilian evacuations ahead of the attack.
On Friday evening, the U.S. State Department announced it had approved a series of major new arms sales to regional U.S. allies, including a $4 billion Patriot missile defense deal with Qatar and a nearly $1 billion sale of advanced precision weapons systems to Israel.
Back in Washington, the Trump administration is embroiled in a heated legal and political dispute with congressional opposition over the legality of the ongoing war. Under U.S. war powers law, the president must obtain congressional authorization for any military action lasting longer than 60 days. Administration officials argue that the current ceasefire pauses the 60-day clock, a claim that is fiercely contested by opposition Democrats. In a letter to congressional leaders released Saturday, Trump pushed back against criticism, claiming that “there has been no exchange of fire between United States Forces and Iran since April 7, 2026,” adding that hostilities “have terminated”. The president faces growing domestic pressure as inflation continues to climb, no clear military victory has been achieved, and U.S. midterm elections approach in late 2026.
For Iran, the economic damage from the war and U.S. sanctions continues to deepen. The Trump administration recently imposed new sanctions on three major Iranian currency exchange firms, and has warned global shipping companies against paying the passage tolls demanded by Iran for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. military officials estimate their port blockade has cut off $6 billion in Iranian oil exports, while Iranian inflation, already at high levels before the war began, has now surged past 50 percent.
“Everyone is trying to endure it, but… they are falling apart,” Amir, a 40-year-old Tehran resident, told an Agence France-Presse reporter reporting from outside Iran. “We still have not seen much of the worst economic effects because everyone had a bit of savings. They had some gold and dollars for a rainy day. When they run out, things will change.”
On Saturday, Iran’s judiciary announced that authorities had executed two men convicted of spying for Israel, marking the latest in a string of executions of alleged spies in recent weeks. One of the two men was convicted of assisting Israeli intelligence during the 12-day border war between Iran and Israel in June 2025.