As spring planting gets underway across the United States, agricultural producers in major farm belts are facing an unprecedented crisis, driven by geopolitical unrest thousands of miles away. The conflict that followed US-Israeli strikes on Iran, which prompted Tehran to block the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global chokepoint for fertilizer and energy shipments — has sent input costs soaring and left growing numbers of farmers waiting for delayed orders they urgently need for this year’s growing season.
On Andy Corriher’s North Carolina corn and soybean operation, the timing could not be worse. Spring is the period when most American farmers apply the bulk of their fertilizer for the year, and Corriher is among the many who found themselves forced to buy supplies just as prices skyrocketed and shipments stalled. “We got hit at the worst possible time, because we’re trying to buy fertilizer when it skyrockets and when the supply also gets cut,” the 47-year-old grower told AFP. He noted he placed orders for multiple loads of liquid nitrogen weeks ago, but suppliers still cannot give him a firm delivery date. Since the blockage of the strait, Corriher estimates the price of his nitrogen fertilizer has jumped by at least 40 percent, while urea — a widely used nitrogen-based fertilizer — has seen a roughly 50 percent price spike at the Port of New Orleans. To cope, he has cut his fertilizer application by a third, a move he fears will lead to lower crop yields at harvest.
Corriher is far from alone in facing this sudden squeeze. Russell Hedrick, a 40-year-old farmer who grows corn and soy across 1,000 acres near Hickory, North Carolina, said around three-quarters of his fertilizer purchases for this season happened after prices rocketed. Unlike large industrial agricultural operations, most small to mid-sized American farmers lack the on-farm storage capacity and upfront capital to stock up on bulk fertilizer months ahead of planting season, leaving them exposed to sudden market shocks. Even before the current conflict, Hedrick noted, steadily rising input costs had forced farmers to carefully ration every pound of fertilizer to maximize output. Now, he has cut application rates down to the “bare minimum,” holding off on additional applications in the hopes prices will cool later in the season. “This year, we just kind of got blindsided,” he said, comparing the unexpected disruption to pre-planned export restrictions that caused fertilizer shortages in 2021, shortages that farmers had time to prepare for.
The crisis has put political pressure on the Trump administration, as farmers make up a core support base that delivered 78 percent of the vote in agricultural-dependent counties to Trump in the 2024 election. Over the weekend, Trump blamed the price hikes on “price gouging from the fertilizer monopoly,” and reassured producers that “American Farmers, we have your back!” US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins attempted to downplay the severity of the crisis, noting that 80 percent of American farmers had already purchased their spring fertilizer before the conflict broke out. But that assessment offered little comfort to the 20 percent of producers who lacked the funds or storage to buy early. For Derrick Austin, a 55-year-old grower based in Marshville, Rollins’ comments were a “gut shot.” After hearing news of the Strait of Hormuz blockage, Austin immediately called his supplier to lock in supply before prices rose. “Thankfully, he let me buy three loads of nitrogen at the old price per ton so I could at least fertilize my wheat crop,” he said. “It was devastating.”
For many long-time Trump supporters in farm country, the crisis has sparked new questions about the administration’s handling of the Middle East conflict, even as most remain hesitant to abandon their support. Corriher, who has backed Trump in past elections, said the crisis “didn’t seem like we had really thought out all the consequences to the American people. I feel like these things were kind of overlooked as part of collateral damage.” The surge in fertilizer costs has been paired with simultaneous spikes in gasoline and diesel prices, hitting both farmers and ordinary American households: “Everybody seems to be suffering.” Austin said the conflict has left him questioning the administration’s decision-making, though he still believes the current administration “still beats some of the alternatives.” Hedrick, who has voted for Trump three times, struck a similar balance: “He’s human like the rest of us. I think he makes good calls, I think he makes mistakes. If the conflict’s resolution brings long-term peace and a reopened Strait of Hormuz, that’s all I can hope for.”
Agricultural economists warn that the long-term impact of the crisis will depend on how quickly the conflict is resolved. The US agricultural sector has already been locked in a prolonged recession for the past two years, noted Chad Hart, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University, with net farm income declining while overall business costs remain persistently high. For 2025, the overall impact may be muted, as many producers who bought fertilizer early will avoid the worst of the price hikes, keeping overall margin losses lower than initially feared. But if the conflict drags on and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, Hart warned the 2027 crop cycle could face far more severe disruptions that would send ripple effects through global food markets.