Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling coalition appears positioned to maintain its parliamentary control as exit polls project a majority victory in Japan’s snap lower house election. According to NHK’s 8 PM exit poll released Sunday, Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) alone is forecast to capture between 274 and 328 seats in the 465-member House of Representatives.
The nationwide voting commenced at 7 AM and concluded at 8 PM local time, with final results anticipated in the early hours of Monday. Over 1,200 candidates competed for parliamentary representation, with 289 seats determined through single-member districts and 176 allocated via proportional representation across 11 regional blocs.
This unusual February election—occurring during peak snowfall season and coinciding with school entrance examinations—followed Takaichi’s controversial dissolution of parliament just 15 months after the previous election. The 16-day campaign period marked the shortest in Japan’s post-war history, drawing criticism for potentially delaying passage of the fiscal 2026 budget originally scheduled for March approval.
While a simple majority requires 233 seats, the ruling coalition’s potential performance carries significant implications. With 243 seats, the bloc would control all standing committee chairs; 261 seats would deliver an “absolute stable majority” ensuring committee control; and 310 seats would provide veto-override capability against the upper house where the coalition lacks majority control.
Despite the projected lower house victory, the ruling coalition’s minority status in the upper chamber remains unchanged, necessitating continued opposition support for legislation. The LDP had suffered defeats in both the 2024 lower house and July 2025 upper house elections, rendering Takaichi’s cabinet a minority government since its formation last October.
The election also marked the debut of the newly formed Centrist Reform Alliance, an opposition bloc created by the Constitutional Democratic Party and former LDP coalition partner Komeito. NHK’s exit poll projected the alliance would secure between 37 and 91 seats, a substantial decline from their pre-election total of 167 seats.