In a stunning geopolitical reversal, Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council (STC) has seen its territorial control evaporate following a decisive Saudi-led counteroffensive, marking a dramatic shift in the complex Yemeni conflict landscape.
Amr al-Bidh, senior STC official and scion of a prominent southern political family, acknowledges the past two months have been a ‘rollercoaster’ for the separatist movement. The STC, which had effectively controlled all former South Yemen territory by early December following a surprise offensive against Saudi-backed tribal forces, now finds its leadership fragmented and military presence significantly diminished.
The turning point came when STC fighters refused to withdraw from strategically vital Hadhramaut and al-Mahrah provinces, prompting Saudi Arabia to respond with overwhelming force. On January 2, Saudi airstrikes supported a counteroffensive by Yemen’s internationally recognized Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), resulting in at least 80 STC casualties and the restoration of government control—even in Aden, the STC’s administrative headquarters and envisioned capital of a future independent state.
Bidh maintains the STC’s advance was initially a limited operation that gained unexpected momentum, claiming the group ‘hadn’t come with the idea of establishing a state in an instant.’ However, Saudi Arabia viewed the territorial expansion as a direct threat to national security, particularly as Emirati-backed forces approached the kingdom’s borders.
The conflict exposed deepening tensions between regional powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, previously allies in the Yemen conflict. The rift culminated in the UAE’s complete withdrawal from Yemen in late December, following Saudi allegations of Emirati weapons shipments to STC forces. This departure left behind a network of detention facilities that PLC officials and human rights activists have characterized as secret torture prisons—allegations Bidh says the STC cannot substantiate.
The STC’s political standing further deteriorated when a delegation to Riyadh announced the organization’s dissolution on Saudi television—a statement some members claim was made under duress. Meanwhile, STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi has disappeared and faces treason charges, with intelligence reports suggesting he was evacuated to the UAE via Somaliland.
Despite these setbacks, Bidh asserts the STC retains significant popular support, evidenced by large-scale protests in Aden that required no financial incentives. He contends the movement has been ‘liberated from the burden of government’ and may return to grassroots organizing, true to its ‘transitional’ designation.
The conflict has revealed deep regional divisions within southern Yemen, particularly in resource-rich Hadhramaut where local tribes resisted STC authority. As Saudi Arabia assumes more direct control, residents report improved services in Aden, though Bidh questions whether this improvement stems from actual governance changes or simply reduced responsibility for the embattled separatists.