The upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election in Greater Manchester has emerged as a critical test for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership, with the selection of controversial right-wing commentator Matt Goodwin as Reform UK’s candidate adding fuel to the political fire.
The electoral contest gained national significance after Labour’s national executive committee blocked Mayor Andy Burnham—considered a potential leadership challenger to Starmer—from contesting the seat. This move positioned the February 26th vote as a referendum on Starmer’s premiership.
Reform UK’s candidate selection has drawn particular attention due to Goodwin’s extensive history of provocative statements regarding ethnicity and Islam. The GB News presenter has repeatedly asserted that British-born individuals with immigrant parents cannot automatically claim British identity, comments that Liberal Democrats have labeled as overtly racist—a characterization Goodwin vehemently denies.
The constituency’s demographic composition, where over 25% of voters identify as Muslim and 44% belong to ethnic minorities, sets the stage for heightened scrutiny of Goodwin’s past statements. His controversial claims include describing demographic changes as a ‘crisis,’ asserting connections between ethnicity and criminal behavior, and challenging the concept of Islamophobia as ‘highly politicized.’
Goodwin’s background presents contradictions: a former academic who studied far-right movements and served as a government advisor on anti-Muslim hatred between 2013-2015, he has transformed into a prominent right-wing media figure. He claims to have abandoned his former ‘liberal left’ affiliations, now advocating for stricter immigration controls and cultural assimilation.
The by-election occurs against a backdrop of Labour’s declining poll numbers and Reform UK’s surging popularity. With ethnic and religious identity poised to become central campaign issues, Goodwin’s candidacy represents both an opportunity for Reform to gain parliamentary footing and a potential liability given the constituency’s diverse electorate.