Portugal’s presidential election may deliver another gain for populists in Europe

LISBON, Portugal — Portugal’s presidential election on Sunday features an unprecedented field of 11 candidates, setting the stage for a potential political milestone as far-right populist André Ventura emerges as a formidable contender. This development signals a possible breakthrough for Europe’s expanding far-right movement within a nation traditionally resistant to such politics.

The crowded ballot virtually guarantees no single candidate will secure the required 50% majority, necessitating a runoff election next month between the top two vote-getters. Nearly 11 million registered voters will determine the successor to President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who concludes his constitutionally limited two-term tenure.

André Ventura, leader of the populist Chega (Enough) party, ranks among the front-runners according to recent polling. His party’s remarkable ascent has transformed it into Portugal’s second-largest parliamentary faction within just six years of establishment. Ventura’s campaign prominently targets immigration, with provocative billboards proclaiming ‘This isn’t Bangladesh’ and opposing welfare benefits for immigrants—rhetoric previously considered unthinkable in Portuguese political discourse.

Other prominent candidates represent Portugal’s establishment parties: Luís Marques Mendes from the governing center-right Social Democratic Party and António José Seguro of the center-left Socialist Party. Retired Rear Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo, acclaimed for his efficient management of Portugal’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign, presents a strong independent challenge.

The election occurs amid Portugal’s most severe political instability in decades, following three general elections within three years. While Ventura emphasizes immigration, voters express greater concern about housing affordability and living costs. The next president will also face constitutional decisions regarding euthanasia legislation approved by parliament in 2022.

Though largely ceremonial, the Portuguese presidency wields significant influence through mediation powers, legislative veto authority, and the crucial ability to dissolve parliament—a tool known locally as the ‘atomic bomb.’ The election’s outcome will determine leadership at Lisbon’s distinctive riverside ‘pink palace’ for a five-year term, with a potential runoff scheduled for February 8 should no candidate achieve immediate victory.