China achieved an unprecedented trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, according to official data released Wednesday, marking a significant expansion from the previous year’s $992 billion. The record imbalance emerged as robust exports to emerging markets compensated for declining shipments to the United States amid escalating trade tensions.
Customs statistics reveal China’s annual exports grew 5.5% to reach $3.77 trillion, while imports remained stagnant at $2.58 trillion. December performance exceeded expectations with exports climbing 6.6% year-on-year in dollar terms, accelerating from November’s 5.9% increase. Import growth simultaneously strengthened to 5.7% from 1.9% the previous month.
The export surge has become a crucial economic stabilizer, maintaining growth near Beijing’s 5% target despite domestic challenges including a prolonged property sector crisis that continues to suppress consumer confidence. This export momentum has simultaneously triggered international concerns about market disruption from competitively priced Chinese goods.
Geographic trade patterns show a dramatic realignment as shipments to South America, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe have substantially offset reduced exports to the United States following the return of President Donald Trump and his intensified trade policies.
Financial institutions project sustained export performance through 2026. BNP Paribas’ chief China economist Jacqueline Rong notes: “We continue to expect exports to act as a major growth driver this year.” Natixis senior economist Gary Ng forecasts approximately 3% export growth for 2026, slightly moderating from 2025’s 5% expansion, with the trade surplus expected to remain above $1 trillion.
The International Monetary Fund has meanwhile urged Chinese authorities to address economic imbalances by accelerating the transition from export dependency toward domestic demand stimulation and investment diversification.