The geopolitical strategy currently being deployed by the Trump administration toward Venezuela reflects a distinct fusion of two pivotal historical moments that transformed global oil markets: the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the 1990s and the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. President Trump’s approach to seizing control of Venezuela’s substantial oil reserves demonstrates an attempt to synthesize elements from both eras while crafting a new foreign policy doctrine.
Historical analysis reveals that following the Soviet collapse, American energy corporations, speculators, and diplomats aggressively pursued oil wealth in newly independent Caspian states like Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. These nations, governed by former communist insiders, offered favorable terms to Western companies. The Trump administration appears to envision a similar scenario in Venezuela, proposing that U.S. energy firms would invest billions to rehabilitate the country’s crippled oil infrastructure while generating substantial profits.
However, energy experts and industry analysts express significant skepticism about this strategy. Steve LeVine, author of ‘The Oil and the Glory,’ notes that major petroleum companies show little enthusiasm for returning to the high-risk adventurism that characterized the post-Soviet era. Despite Venezuela possessing the world’s largest proven oil reserves, the complex political reality presents formidable obstacles unlike the relatively welcoming environment that followed the Soviet disintegration.
The administration’s plan reportedly involves collaborating with remnants of President Maduro’s government, particularly Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, to maintain stability and resume oil production. This approach notably diverges from the Iraq model where the U.S. dismantled the existing power structure through de-Baathification, which resulted in prolonged instability.
Technical challenges further complicate Venezuela’s oil potential. The country’s heavy crude requires expensive, labor-intensive extraction and specialized refining capacity—contrasting sharply with Iraq’s light, easily accessible oil. Venezuela’s production has plummeted from approximately 3 million barrels daily in the late 1990s to just 800,000 barrels currently, following decades of underinvestment, mismanagement, and sanctions.
Financial analysts estimate that revitalizing Venezuela’s oil sector would require approximately $100 billion in investments—a substantial commitment at a time of conservative oil demand projections and low global prices. The emergence of U.S. shale production has additionally reduced the imperative for American companies to pursue risky international ventures, as domestic opportunities offer more stable returns with fewer geopolitical complications.
Market realities further undermine the strategy’s viability. With OPEC members increasing production and global markets well-supplied, the necessity for massive Venezuelan output remains questionable. Industry experts suggest that rather than dramatically boosting production, the administration’s primary objective may be establishing control over Venezuela’s resources as a strategic asset, with modest production increases representing a more plausible outcome.