Balloons from Belarus are causing chaos in Lithuania. Is it smugglers or a hybrid attack?

Lithuania is confronting an unprecedented national security emergency as coordinated balloon incursions from Belarus disrupt civil aviation and border security. Over the past ten weeks, giant white balloons carrying contraband cigarettes have forced fifteen shutdowns of Vilnius International Airport, stranding thousands of travelers and culminating in one eleven-hour complete airspace closure.

Lithuanian authorities assert these are not mere smuggling operations but calculated acts of hybrid warfare. Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys told the BBC that the balloons are strategically launched to target the airport located just 30km from the Belarusian border. ‘This is political blackmail,’ Budrys stated, indicating Belarus views this as leverage against its neighbor.

In response, Lithuania has deployed military police for nightly border patrols, established mobile checkpoints, and offered a €1 million prize for technological solutions to intercept the high-altitude balloons. New legislation now criminalizes aviation sabotage with potential prison sentences.

The government dismisses Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s claims that independent smugglers are responsible. Crisis management head Vilmantas Vitkauskas noted the precise timing of launches—one or two balloons every 30 minutes—suggests state coordination. Lithuanian officials believe the operation aims to force sanctions relief and end Belarus’s international isolation following its support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The economic impact is mounting, with estimated losses reaching €2 million and airlines altering flight schedules. Travelers now consult wind forecasts before booking flights, while officials worry about eroding public confidence in air travel and NATO’s preparedness for unconventional threats.