Israel-Turkey rift dampens Gaza force plans as allies get cold feet

Diplomatic efforts to establish a United Nations-mandated international stabilization force for Gaza have reached an impasse due to escalating tensions between Israel and Turkey, according to sources familiar with the negotiations. The United States, tasked with coordinating the multinational effort, faces significant challenges in bridging the divide between these key regional powers.

The UN Security Council previously approved the creation of a peacekeeping contingent with preliminary support from several nations including Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Pakistan and Jordan. However, implementation has stalled as Israel maintains its firm opposition to Turkish military presence in Gaza, despite Ankara’s readiness to deploy approximately 2,000 experienced peacekeeping personnel.

The diplomatic deadlock has created a domino effect, with multiple nations reconsidering their participation. Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Indonesia have indicated reluctance to contribute troops without Turkish involvement, while the UAE has formally declined participation citing insufficient operational framework. Emirati officials expressed concerns that Qatari and Turkish involvement could potentially empower groups affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas in reconstruction efforts.

Complicating matters further, Turkey’s recent issuance of an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on charges of crimes against humanity has exacerbated tensions during sensitive negotiations. This development follows Israel’s previous blockage of Turkish search and rescue teams from entering Gaza and ongoing trade restrictions imposed since spring 2024.

The proposed stabilization force, envisioned to comprise between 15,000-20,000 troops organized into three brigades, now faces an uncertain timeline. While some US officials target deployment by early 2026, others suggest operations might commence as early as January, though participation arrangements remain highly fluid. The UAE has indicated it will instead focus on humanitarian aid and supporting local governance structures in Gaza.