A groundbreaking study by Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) has revealed that the death toll in Gaza from Israel’s ongoing war could surpass 100,000 by October 2025. The report, published on Tuesday, indicates that the number of fatalities is significantly higher than the figures reported by the Palestinian health ministry. MPIDR, one of the world’s leading demographic research institutions, estimated that 78,318 people were killed directly due to the conflict between October 7, 2023, and the end of 2024. The study further projected that the death toll would exceed 100,000 by October 2025. The Palestinian health ministry, in contrast, has reported at least 69,733 deaths. The MPIDR study utilized data from multiple sources, including the Gaza health ministry, the Israeli human rights organization B’Tselem, and United Nations agencies. The report highlighted a dramatic decline in life expectancy in Gaza, with a 44% drop in 2023 and a 47% drop in 2024 compared to pre-war levels. The study also noted that the demographic patterns of violent deaths in Gaza resemble those observed in documented genocides, though it refrained from classifying the conflict as such. The authors emphasized that their analysis focused solely on direct conflict-related deaths and did not account for the broader, long-term indirect effects of the war. Despite a US-brokered ceasefire initiated on October 11, Israeli strikes have continued, resulting in at least 339 Palestinian deaths and nearly 500 ceasefire violations, according to Gaza authorities.
More than 100,000 Palestinians likely killed in Gaza, leading German institute says
