Australians worry markedly more about US interference: new poll

Australians continue to value their alliance with the United States, but a new poll reveals growing skepticism and critical views toward the relationship. Conducted by the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney, the survey of 2,045 respondents highlights a significant shift in public opinion. For the first time in five years, more Australians (57%) believe the US, rather than China (51%), would pressure Australia to take sides in their rivalry. This reflects a broader awareness that pressure can come from allies as well as adversaries. Concerns about US interference in Australia have surged to 54%, a nearly 20-point increase since 2021, narrowing the gap with concerns about interference from China and Russia, which remain steady at 64%. The poll also indicates that nearly two-thirds of Australians fear a second Trump presidency would heighten the likelihood of conflict with China. Economic perceptions have shifted dramatically, with 72% of respondents now viewing the US as using trade for political punishment, compared to 70% for China. Despite these concerns, Australians’ views of China have softened since 2021. While mistrust of the Chinese government persists, it has declined from 76% to 64%, and two-thirds of Australians now see China as a security concern, the lowest level in five years. Regional tensions, particularly in the South China Sea, remain a focal point, with 72% of respondents viewing China’s actions there as a threat to Australia’s interests. Support for defense spending has reached a record high of 72%, though this drops to 55% when trade-offs with health or education are considered. The AUKUS defense pact, which includes plans to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, is supported by half of Australians as a means to enhance national security. On Taiwan, opinions are divided: 37% would support sending troops if China attacked, while most prefer neutrality or non-military engagement. In a hypothetical US-China conflict over Taiwan, 50% of Australians would favor neutrality, and 47% would back supporting the US. The survey also reveals that China policy is increasingly influencing Australian voters, with 37% citing it as a factor in the 2025 federal election, up 10 points from 2022. Overall, Australians are adopting a more nuanced approach to managing their relationships with both China and the US, balancing economic interests with strategic concerns.