India’s Modi readies bellwether poll in poorest state

As India’s poorest state, Bihar, prepares for its pivotal elections on November 6 and 11, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is vying to secure a decisive victory that could reshape its political trajectory ahead of the 2026 national elections. Bihar, with a population comparable to Mexico, remains a bellwether state in the Hindi-speaking north, where the BJP has yet to govern independently. The party is leveraging economic incentives to appeal to voters, particularly in a region where poverty and unemployment dominate daily life. For Rajkumari Devi, a 28-year-old housewife from Muzaffarpur district, survival hinges on her husband’s irregular earnings as a daily wage laborer, highlighting the economic struggles faced by millions. Despite Bihar’s grim poverty indicators, the state has seen progress over the past decade, with multidimensional poverty rates dropping from over 50% in 2016 to about a third in 2021. Modi’s recent announcements of $8 billion in infrastructure projects and an $844 million initiative for women entrepreneurs aim to bolster the BJP’s appeal. However, the party faces stiff competition from the opposition alliance led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, which promises job creation and economic revival. Political analysts suggest that a BJP victory in Bihar could energize its campaign in other key states like West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, setting the stage for a strong performance in the 2026 elections. The outcome of this election will ultimately hinge on which party voters believe can secure their economic future.