Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is bracing for a challenging state election in Bihar, one of India’s poorest and most populous regions. Scheduled for November, the election is marked by widespread discontent over youth unemployment and skepticism about the integrity of voter rolls. These issues could jeopardize Modi’s coalition, which relies heavily on regional partners like Bihar’s Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who has a history of shifting allegiances between Modi and the opposition. Bihar, with its 130 million residents, is a politically pivotal state in India’s heartland. A loss here could ripple into upcoming elections in Assam, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu, further threatening the NDA’s dominance. Women voters are expected to play a decisive role, as male migration for work leaves them as the primary decision-makers in many households. Recent opinion polls show the NDA holding a slim 1.6% lead over the opposition alliance, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress. The NDA’s edge is attributed to initiatives like direct cash transfers to women, but distrust in electoral processes and anger over unemployment remain significant hurdles. The opposition has capitalized on these concerns, promising guaranteed government jobs and increased subsidies. Meanwhile, new political entrants like Jan Suraaj, founded by Modi’s former strategist Prashant Kishor, aim to reshape Bihar’s political landscape. Despite the challenges, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party remains optimistic, citing public faith in the Prime Minister’s vision. The election results, to be announced on November 14, will be a litmus test for Modi’s coalition ahead of the 2026 national elections.