In a strategic move amid escalating trade tensions, China has ceased its purchases of US soybeans in recent months, significantly impacting the agricultural trade relationship between the two nations. This decision has sent shockwaves through America’s farming community, particularly as both countries prepare for a potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month, though plans remain unconfirmed.
President Trump expressed his concerns in a social media post on October 1, stating, ‘The soybean farmers of our country are being hurt because China is, for ‘negotiating’ reasons only, not buying.’ He added that the US would allocate a portion of tariff revenues to support affected farmers.
Historically, the soybean trade has been a cornerstone of Sino-US agricultural cooperation. Following China’s 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization, the country removed import quotas and imposed a uniform 3% tariff, leading to a surge in US soybean imports. However, the trade war initiated by the Trump administration in 2018 caused a significant decline, with imports dropping from 32.58 million tons in 2017 to 16.64 million tons in 2018. Despite a brief stabilization, the 2022 pandemic further disrupted supplies, prompting China to diversify its sourcing to Brazil and Argentina.
In 2025, US soybean exports to China plummeted to 218 million bushels from January to August, with no deliveries recorded in June, July, and August. This stark decline contrasts with the 985 million bushels shipped in the previous year, which accounted for 51% of the US’s total soybean exports.
Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer, is expected to harvest 169 million metric tons in the 2024/25 crop year, representing approximately 40% of global output. The US, with a crop of 119 million tonnes, accounts for 28%, meaning the two countries together supply 68% of the world’s soybeans.
A columnist under the pseudonym ‘Old Farmer’ on Guancha.cn criticized the trade standoff, stating, ‘American soybean farmers have become the sacrificial victims of their own domestic political struggle.’ He argued that the tariff war carries limited economic meaning but significant political implications, reflecting the deep ideological rift in the US.
Wang Chong, director of the Center for American Studies at Zhejiang International Studies University, noted that China’s halt in soybean imports has deeply affected farmers in states like Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota, which are strongholds of Trump’s MAGA movement. He suggested that China could use soybean imports as a bargaining chip in trade talks, seeking concessions such as easing restrictions on chip export controls or opening the US market to Chinese electric vehicles.
The US-China trade standoff intensified on April 2 when Trump announced a plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on all countries, warning of heavier duties for any nation retaliating against the US. Although both sides agreed on May 12 to ease the confrontation, Chinese goods continue to face tariffs ranging from 30% to 50% in the US, while US exporters pay a 10% tariff in China.
The current trade truce is set to expire on November 10 if negotiations fail to progress. Meanwhile, Beijing has ordered its importers not to purchase any US soybeans since May. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun emphasized the need for consultation based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit.
In response to the mounting pressure on farmers, the Trump administration is reportedly preparing a $10 billion bailout package to offset losses in export markets. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized China’s decision to use American soybean farmers as pawns in trade negotiations.
The halt in China’s soybean purchases has significantly impacted US exports to China, which fell 16.8% in the three months between June and August 2025 compared to the same period last year. This decline underscores the broader implications of the ongoing trade tensions between the two economic giants.