The global economic landscape is bracing for potential upheaval as former US President Donald Trump proposes a staggering 130% tariff on Chinese imports, escalating the US-China trade war to unprecedented levels. While markets react with alarm, analysts remain skeptical about the likelihood of such a drastic measure being implemented on November 1 as threatened. The imposition of such tariffs between the world’s two largest economies could trigger a global recession, with the combined $45 trillion output of the US and China forming the backbone of international trade. The cessation of commerce between these economic giants would be catastrophic for trade-dependent nations, potentially leading to a near-extinction-level event for their economies. The core issue, however, lies not in the tariff threat itself but in the underlying motivations driving Trump’s aggressive stance. The stated rationale—a response to China’s restrictions on critical mineral exports—appears to mask a broader agenda. Trump’s recent setbacks in trade negotiations with South Korea, Japan, and the European Union have left him increasingly desperate to secure a ‘grand bargain’ with China. Despite his bluster, many view this as a negotiating tactic rather than a genuine policy shift. Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that the ultimate outcome will likely be an extension of the current tariff pause. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping appears to hold the upper hand, leveraging Trump’s desperation to his advantage. As the global economy teeters on the brink, the stakes have never been higher, with the potential for renewed volatility and risk repricing looming large.